Nebius (NBIS): A High-Growth AI Infrastructure Play with Explosive Earnings Momentum and a Clear Path to Scalability

In the rapidly evolving AI cloud sector, few companies have captured investor attention as aggressively as Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ: NBIS). The Q2 2025 earnings report, released on August 08, 2025, has further solidified its position as a high-growth contender, showcasing explosive revenue growth, strategic infrastructure expansion, and a clear trajectory toward EBITDA profitability. For investors seeking exposure to the AI infrastructure boom, Nebius presents a compelling case—though not without risks.

Explosive Revenue Growth and Strategic Momentum

Nebius delivered a staggering 625% year-over-year revenue increase in Q2 2025, generating $105.1 million in revenue. This outperformed estimates by $3.9 million and marked a 106% sequential growth. The surge was driven by two pillars: its core AI infrastructure business and its education technology subsidiary, TripleTen.

The AI infrastructure segment, which includes cloud software and hardware tailored for intensive AI workloads, remains the engine of growth. Nebius' proprietary architecture and in-house hardware development have allowed it to differentiate in a crowded market. Meanwhile, TripleTen's performance—focused on upskilling professionals in AI and cloud technologies—has added a recurring revenue stream and expanded Nebius' ecosystem.

EBITDA Positivity Ahead of Schedule: A Milestone

One of the most striking aspects of the Q2 report was Nebius' early achievement of positive Adjusted EBITDA. This milestone, originally projected for late 2025, underscores the company's operational efficiency and pricing power. While the Group EBITDA remains negative (due to investments in TripleTen and R&D), the core AI infrastructure business is now cash-flow positive.

The company expects Group EBITDA to turn positive in H2 2025, with full-year 2025 EBITDA losses narrowing significantly. This trajectory is critical for investors, as it signals a transition from hypergrowth capital expenditure to scalable profitability. By 2026, Nebius anticipates EBITDA to move into the black, driven by higher-margin software services and optimized hardware deployment.

Infrastructure Expansion: Powering the Next Phase

Nebius' long-term scalability hinges on its aggressive infrastructure expansion. The company has already connected over 100 megawatts (MW) of power in Q2 2025 and plans to secure more than 1 gigawatt (GW) by 2026. This capacity will fuel GPU installations in Q4 2025, positioning Nebius to meet surging demand for AI compute.

Two greenfield data centers in the U.S., expected to come online in 2026, will further diversify its footprint and reduce latency for North American clients. These projects align with the global shift toward localized AI infrastructure, as enterprises prioritize data sovereignty and low-latency processing.

Raising the Bar: Full-Year Guidance and Market Position

Nebius raised its 2025 revenue guidance to $900 million–$1.1 billion, up from $750 million–$1 billion, reflecting strong contract activity and sales visibility. This optimism is justified: the company's proprietary cloud software and in-house hardware give it a unique edge in a sector dominated by generic solutions.

However, the net loss of $91.5 million in Q2 2025—up 49% YoY—raises questions about short-term profitability. The loss was partially offset by non-cash gains from revaluing its stake in ClickHouse and Toloka, but investors must remain cautious. The key will be whether Nebius can sustain its growth while managing capital expenditures.

Investment Implications: Balancing Risk and Reward

Nebius operates in a high-stakes, high-reward sector. The AI infrastructure market is projected to grow at a 30%+ CAGR through 2030, and Nebius is well-positioned to capture a significant share. Its early EBITDA positivity and infrastructure expansion plans suggest a company that understands scalability.

Yet risks persist. The net loss, while partially offset by gains, highlights the capital intensity of the business. Additionally, competition from established players like NVIDIA and Amazon Web Services (AWS) could pressure margins. Investors must also monitor the timeline for EBITDA positivity—delays could test market patience.

Final Verdict: A High-Volatility, High-Potential Play

For investors with a high-risk tolerance and a long-term horizon, Nebius offers an enticing opportunity. Its explosive revenue growth, strategic infrastructure investments, and early EBITDA progress align with the trajectory of a breakout AI infrastructure player. However, the path to profitability is not without hurdles.

Those considering a position in NBIS should monitor key metrics: the pace of EBITDA improvement, capacity utilization rates, and the success of its U.S. data center projects. In a sector where momentum is king, Nebius has all the ingredients to become a dominant force—if it can execute on its ambitious roadmap.

In the end, Nebius is not just a stock—it's a bet on the future of AI. And for those willing to ride the volatility, the rewards could be transformative.