Nebius Group: Why This Undervalued AI Infrastructure Leader Could Be the CoreWeave of 2026

The AI infrastructure sector is witnessing a seismic shift, with companies racing to monetize the insatiable demand for compute power. Among the contenders, Nebius Group stands out as a capital-efficient disruptor, drawing inevitable comparisons to CoreWeave, the poster child of AI-driven infrastructure scaling. But while CoreWeave's explosive growth has come at the cost of astronomical debt and stretched valuations, Nebius is charting a more disciplined path—one that could position it as the “CoreWeave of 2026” with a stronger balance sheet and superior monetization metrics.

Capital Efficiency: The New Moat

Nebius's ability to generate $4.1–$5.0 million in ARR per megawatt (MW) of connected power dwarfs CoreWeave's $2.6 million per MW, according to a comparative analysis of their Q2 2025 earnings. This gap underscores Nebius's superior infrastructure utilization and pricing power. For context, CoreWeave's capital expenditures (CAPEX) in Q2 2025 totaled $2.9 billion, a figure nearly six times Nebius's $510.6 million outlay for the same period. Yet Nebius's ARR growth—up 73% quarter-over-quarter to $430 million—surpassed CoreWeave's $1.21 billion Q2 revenue by a margin of 36% when adjusted for sequential growth.

This efficiency stems from Nebius's strategic focus on greenfield data centers, which allow tighter cost control and faster deployment cycles compared to retrofitting legacy infrastructure. By securing 1 GW of power for 2026 and targeting 220 MW of capacity by year-end 2025, Nebius is scaling at a pace that balances ambition with fiscal prudence. In contrast, CoreWeave's reliance on aggressive debt financing—$25 billion raised since 2024—has left it with a Price/Book ratio of 25.06X, far exceeding industry averages.

ARR Growth and Profitability: A Tale of Two Models

Nebius's financials tell a story of disciplined execution. Its core AI infrastructure business turned Adjusted EBITDA-positive ahead of schedule, a rare feat in a sector notorious for burn rates. The company also raised its full-year ARR guidance to $900 million–$1.1 billion, a range implying a 210–250% year-over-year increase from its Q2 2024 ARR of $120 million. This trajectory mirrors CoreWeave's 2024 growth but with a critical difference: Nebius's $1.68 billion cash reserve and $6 billion in strategic assets provide a buffer against volatility.

CoreWeave, meanwhile, faces headwinds. Despite a $30.1 billion contracted backlog, its Q2 2025 net loss of $291 million and $2.9 billion CAPEX highlight the risks of prioritizing scale over profitability. Nebius's ability to achieve $10 million in ARR per MW (projected for 2025) versus CoreWeave's $2.6 million suggests a more sustainable model—one that could drive a valuation re-rating as the market recognizes its superior unit economics.

Valuation Re-Rating: The Next Frontier

The parallels between Nebius and CoreWeave are striking. CoreWeave's 2024 re-rating was fueled by a 420% revenue surge and a $11.9 billion OpenAI contract, but its $30.1 billion market cap now reflects skepticism about its path to profitability. Nebius, however, is poised to avoid this trap. With peak utilization rates and a $1.1 billion ARR ceiling in 2025, it is capturing demand without overleveraging.

Moreover, Nebius's expansion into life sciences and healthcare—powered by NVIDIA's Blackwell GPUs—opens new revenue streams that CoreWeave has yet to exploit. This diversification, combined with its $1.68 billion cash hoard, positions Nebius to navigate macroeconomic headwinds while CoreWeave grapples with $25 billion in debt.

Conclusion: The 2026 Play

Nebius Group is not merely following CoreWeave's playbook—it is refining it. By combining capital-efficient scaling, superior monetization, and early profitability, it is building a moat that CoreWeave's debt-heavy model cannot match. As the AI infrastructure sector matures, investors may look back at Nebius's 2025 performance as the inflection point that justified its re-rating. For now, the numbers speak for themselves: Nebius is the CoreWeave of 2026, arriving ahead of schedule.

Source:
[1] Nebius Q2 2025: ARR Rises 73% QoQ, Why We're Still ... [https://mlq.ai/research/nebius-nbis-q2-2025-update/]
[2] CoreWeave vs Nebius — Q2 2025 comparative earnings review [https://noegrs.substack.com/p/coreweave-vs-nebius-q2-2025-comparative]
[3] CoreWeave (CRWV) Q2 Earnings: 3 Must-Know Numbers ... [https://www.aol.com/coreweave-crwv-q2-earnings-3-134500337.html]
[4] NEBIUS GROUP NV Earnings Call Transcript FY25 Q2 [https://www.stockinsights.ai/us/NBIS/earnings-transcript/fy25-q2-5bf2]