Nebius Group Surges 8.72% On Bullish Reversal Signals

Nebius Group (NBIS) closed at 132.64 on October 9, 2025, marking an 8.72% single-day gain and a 12.69% two-day advance. This momentum occurred after a volatile pullback earlier in the week, setting the stage for a multi-indicator assessment of the stock’s trajectory.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals a compelling bullish reversal pattern. The October 7 session showed a long upper wick (high of 128.28, close at 117.70), signaling rejection near the October 6 resistance of 135.76. This was followed by a bullish engulfing formation on October 9, where the candle’s body (119.87–132.64) fully eclipsed the prior two sessions’ ranges, closing near the day’s high of 133.32. This pattern suggests renewed buying pressure, with immediate support now established at 117.50–119.87 (October 7–8 lows). Resistance is evident at the October 6 peak of 135.76, with a breach potentially accelerating upward momentum.
Moving Average Theory
The stock maintains a bullish long-term structure, trading decisively above all key moving averages. The 50-day MA (≈105) and 100-day MA (≈85) exhibit a steady upward slope, while the 200-day MA (≈65) confirms the primary uptrend. Current price positioning well above these averages—especially the psychologically significant 200-day—implies strong institutional support. The ascending order of MAs (50 > 100 > 200) reinforces a "golden cross" configuration, typically associated with sustained bullish phases. However, the rapid deviation from the 50-day MA may invite short-term mean reversion.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows bullish expansion, with the MACD line crossing above its signal line during the October 9 rally. This signals strengthening positive momentum. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator reflects overbought conditions, with K and J lines exceeding 80 after the sharp rebound. While MACD supports continuation, KDJ’s extreme reading warns of near-term exhaustion. This divergence underscores conflicting short- and medium-term signals: MACD favors trend persistence, while KDJ suggests a consolidation phase may be imminent.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands have expanded markedly, with the October 9 close near the upper band (≈134). This volatility surge typically follows periods of compression (last observed in late September) and often precedes directional continuations. However, the price’s proximity to the upper band, combined with expanded bandwidth, hints at overextension. Historically, such deviations in Nebius Group have resolved through brief pullbacks or sideways digestion, implying resistance near 135–136 could trigger profit-taking.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume patterns during the October 7–9 swing reveal subtle concerns. While the 8.72% surge on October 9 occurred on 17.9M shares—above the 30-day average—it fell short of the October 7 downturn’s 19.6M shares. This negative volume divergence (higher volume on down days versus up days) questions the sustainability of the rebound. Conversely, the two-day rally’s cumulative volume (35.9M shares) marginally exceeded the October 6–7 decline’s volume (35.3M), offering partial validation. A close above 135.76 with volume >20M shares would strengthen bullish conviction.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI, calculated at approximately 75–76, has entered overbought territory (>70). This elevation follows the 12.69% two-day surge and aligns with KDJ’s overbought signal. Historically, Nebius Group’s RSI peaks above 75 have preceded 5–10% retracements (e.g., early September). While not an immediate reversal signal, it indicates limited near-term upside without consolidation. Traders should note that RSI can remain overbought during powerful trends, but its current level merits caution at these heights.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the dominant rally from the September 8 low (64.06) to the October 9 high (133.32) reveals key levels. The 23.6% retracement (116.97) provided support during the October 7 intraday dip to 115.72, demonstrating its technical relevance. The 38.2% level (106.86) and 50% level (98.69) would become critical downside targets should 116.97 fail. Given the sharp rebound from the 23.6% zone, this level now serves as a pivotal short-term floor. A sustained break above 133.32 could extend gains toward the 161.8% projection (≈168), though overbought oscillators temper this near-term probability.
Confluence emerges across several indicators: the bullish candlestick reversal, moving average alignment, MACD crossover, and Fibonacci support at 116.97 collectively endorse the upward bias. However, the KDJ and RSI overbought readings, negative volume divergence, and Bollinger Band extension introduce caution for near-term consolidation. These divergences suggest that while the broader uptrend remains intact, a pullback to test the 119–122 support zone may precede further upside.