Nebius Group Surges 4.45% as Intraday Volatility Ignites Speculation

Summary
• Nebius Group (NBIS) trades at $71.84, up 4.45% from $68.78
• Intraday range spans $69.16 to $75.96, hitting 52-week high
• Turnover of 16.66 million shares, 8.81% of float

Today’s explosive move in Nebius Group has ignited fervent market speculation, with the stock surging to a 52-week high of $75.96. The surge, driven by a combination of technical momentum and options market activity, has positioned NBIS as a focal point for traders navigating the semiconductor sector’s mixed performance. With implied volatility spiking across key options contracts, the question now is whether this rally will consolidate or face a correction.

Technical Bullishness Drives Nebius Group's Sharp Rally
Nebius Group’s 4.45% intraday gain is fueled by a confluence of technical indicators. The stock’s RSI of 76.96 signals overbought conditions, while the MACD (3.43) remains above its signal line (2.10), confirming a bullish crossover. Bollinger Bands show the price at $71.84 is well above the middle band ($54.17), indicating strong momentum. Additionally, the stock’s proximity to its 52-week high ($75.96) has attracted momentum traders capitalizing on the breakout pattern.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls for Aggressive Bulls
• 200-day average: $33.97 (far below current price)
• RSI: 76.96 (overbought)
• MACD: 3.43 (bullish crossover)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $71.84 vs. upper band $63.43 (price above band)

Nebius Group’s technicals suggest a continuation of the bullish trend, with key resistance at $75.96 (52-week high) and support at $69.16 (intraday low). The stock’s dynamic PE of 18.21 and high turnover rate (8.81%) indicate strong institutional interest. For leveraged exposure, two options stand out:

• NBIS20250815C75 (Call, $75 strike, 2025-08-15 expiry)
- IV: 83.20% (high)
- Leverage Ratio: 47.78% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.340 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.451 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0525 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: $1.96M (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $75.43 → $0.43 profit per contract
- This call offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a continuation of the rally.

• NBIS20250815C76 (Call, $76 strike, 2025-08-15 expiry)
- IV: 82.57% (high)
- Leverage Ratio: 59.73% (high)
- Delta: 0.290 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.404 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0494 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: $138,949 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $75.43 → $0.00 (strike above target)
- While the 5% upside scenario yields no profit, this contract’s high leverage and gamma make it a speculative play for a breakout above $76.

Aggressive bulls should consider NBIS20250815C75 into a test of $75.96. If the 52-week high holds, the rally could extend to $78–$80.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
The 4% intraday surge in Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) on August 6, 2025, has led to a significant increase in trading activity, with shares trading as high as $54.11 and ending at $54.06. Despite a significant drop in trading volume, analysts have issued mostly positive ratings for NBIS, with a consensus average price target of $66.80 and some firms providing a "strong-buy" rating with a target of $84.00.The surge in NBIS's stock price can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, the company reported a quarterly revenue of $55.30 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 385%. This significant increase in revenue is a strong indicator of the company's growth potential and ability to generate income. Secondly, NBIS has been expanding its AI cloud infrastructure and improving its integrations with external AI platforms, which is likely to have contributed to gaining more clients. However, it is important to note that NBIS remains unprofitable, with management reaffirming that adjusted EBITDA will be negative for the full year 2025. Additionally, the company has raised its 2025 capital expenditure forecast, which could be a concern if revenues do not keep up the required pace to sustain such high capital intensity.In conclusion, the 4% intraday surge in NBIS's stock price is a positive development, but investors should remain cautious due to the company's ongoing profitability issues and high capital expenditure. The upcoming Q2 earnings report is a critical catalyst that could further drive the stock's performance, and investors should closely monitor the company's progress in improving its financials and executing on its growth strategy.

Act Now: Nebius Group's Momentum Presents High-Reward Opportunities
Nebius Group’s technical setup suggests a high-probability continuation of the bullish trend, with the 52-week high ($75.96) as the immediate target. The stock’s RSI in overbought territory and MACD divergence hint at potential exhaustion, but the strong gamma and theta in key calls indicate sustained short-term demand. Sector leader Nvidia (NVDA) is up 0.38%, underscoring the semiconductor sector’s mixed performance. Traders should prioritize NBIS20250815C75 for leveraged exposure and monitor the $75.96 level. A break above this could trigger a parabolic move, while a close below $69.16 would signal a reversal. Watch for $75.96 breakout or gamma-driven short-covering.