Nebius Group Surges 49.42% as Bullish Reversal Patterns and Moving Averages Confirm Uptrend

Candlestick Theory

Nebius Group’s recent 49.42% surge on 2025-09-09 forms a long white candlestick, signaling strong bullish momentum. This follows a prior bearish candle (2025-09-02, -3.81%) and a subsequent recovery, suggesting a potential bullish reversal pattern such as a morning star or hammer. Key support levels are evident at 63.80 (2025-09-08 low) and 64.06 (2025-09-08 close), while resistance aligns with the recent high of 98.68. The price action indicates a shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish, with buyers overpowering sellers at critical levels.

Moving Average Theory

Short-term (50-day) and long-term (200-day) moving averages confirm an uptrend, with the 50-day MA above the 200-day MA. The current price (95.72) sits well above both averages, reinforcing bullish momentum. The 200-day MA (calculated at ~60–65) acts as a dynamic support level, which the price has held above during recent pullbacks. However, the 100-day MA (~70–75) may act as a near-term resistance if the trend consolidates. Confluence between moving averages and candlestick patterns strengthens the case for a sustained rally.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram shows a bullish divergence, with positive momentum expanding as the price surges. The KDJ (stochastic oscillator) remains in overbought territory (K ~85, D ~80), suggesting potential exhaustion in the short term. While the MACD supports continuation of the uptrend, the KDJ’s overbought levels raise caution about near-term profit-taking. A bearish crossover in KDJ could signal a pullback, but the MACD’s strength suggests a retest of key resistance levels before a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has spiked, with the price nearing the upper Bollinger Band (98.68) and the bands widening post-breakout. This expansion confirms heightened buying pressure. The middle band (~75–80) may act as a support if the price retraces. A sustained close above the upper band could indicate a new trend phase, while a drop below the middle band might trigger a consolidation phase. The bands’ width also highlights the recent surge’s intensity, with the 2025-09-09 session pushing the upper band to an all-time high.

Volume-Price Relationship

The recent session’s 88.38M share volume is exceptionally high, validating the price surge’s legitimacy. This aligns with the candlestick pattern’s bullish signal, as volume typically surges during breakouts. However, declining volume in subsequent sessions (e.g., 23.05M on 2025-09-08) suggests reduced conviction, which could precede a correction. The positive volume-price divergence (price up, volume up) supports the trend’s sustainability, but a drop in volume during pullbacks may indicate waning momentum.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI has spiked to overbought levels (>70), indicating potential overextension in the short term. This aligns with the KDJ’s overbought signal, suggesting a high probability of a near-term correction. However, in strong trends, RSI can remain elevated for extended periods. A close below 70 would confirm overbought conditions, but the RSI’s trajectory must be monitored alongside volume and moving averages to avoid false signals.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels from the 2025-09-09 high (98.68) to the 2025-08-08 low (63.80) include 78.6% at ~95.72 (current price), 61.8% at ~87.00, and 50% at ~81.24. The current price near the 78.6% retracement level acts as a critical resistance; a break above this would target the 100% extension (~100.00). A failure to hold here may trigger a pullback to the 61.8% level, where the 50-day MA could provide confluence support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could involve entering long positions when the 50-day MA crosses above the 200-day MA (golden cross) and RSI > 50, with exits triggered by a death cross or RSI < 30. Applying this to Nebius Group’s data, the golden cross condition was met earlier in the year, and the recent RSI > 70 suggests an overbought but trending market. The strategy would hold during the current surge but may signal an exit if RSI drops below 30 or the 50-day MA crosses below the 200-day MA. Historical performance would need to confirm if this framework captures sustained uptrends while mitigating overbought risks.