Nebius Group Surges 4.54% on Bullish Candlestick Pattern and Golden Cross Momentum

Nebius Group (NBIS) closed the most recent session with a 4.54% gain, reaching $135.46. The price action suggests a potential bullish continuation, supported by a strong candlestick pattern with a long upper wick from $128.01 to $138.53, indicating buying pressure. Key support levels are identified at $124.94 (prior close) and $112.27, while resistance aligns with the recent high of $138.53 and the 50-day moving average ($132.98).

Candlestick Theory

The recent bullish candle with a 4.54% surge aligns with a bullish engulfing pattern, as the body of the candle fully engulfs the previous session’s bearish candle. This suggests a reversal from prior bearish momentum. Key support levels at $124.94 and $112.27 are reinforced by prior price rejections, while resistance at $138.53 and $141.10 (2025-10-10 high) face critical tests. A break above $138.53 could target $145.00, aligning with Fibonacci retracement levels from the 2024-10-21 low ($14.09) to the 2025-09-09 high ($98.68).

Moving Average Theory

Short-term momentum is validated by the 50-day MA ($132.98) crossing above the 100-day MA ($127.98), forming a golden cross. The 200-day MA ($112.27) remains below, indicating a bullish medium-term trend. Price is currently 6.9% above the 200-day MA, suggesting a strong uptrend. A pullback to the 50-day MA could act as a dynamic support zone, while a break below the 100-day MA would signal weakening momentum.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has turned positive, with the line crossing above the signal line, confirming bullish momentum. The KDJ stochastic oscillator shows %K at 85 and %D at 78, indicating overbought conditions but no immediate divergence. This suggests the uptrend may persist, though a pullback to the 50-level on KDJ could trigger a short-term correction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded, with price near the upper band ($138.53), signaling heightened buying pressure. The 20-period Bollinger Band width is at its widest point in three months, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. A retest of the middle band ($135.46) could validate its role as a support/resistance pivot.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume surged 40% on the 4.54% rally, confirming the strength of the move. However, volume has dipped in the last two sessions, raising questions about sustainability. A follow-through surge above $138.53 on higher volume would reinforce the bullish case, while declining volume could indicate waning momentum.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-period RSI stands at 68, nearing overbought territory. While this warns of potential exhaustion, the lack of bearish divergence (price higher, RSI lower) suggests the uptrend remains intact. A close above 70 would trigger a cautionary flag, but given the strong fundamental backdrop and Fibonacci retracement levels, the RSI’s warning should be interpreted with nuance.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key retracement levels from the 2024-10-21 low to the 2025-09-09 high include 38.2% ($107.70), 50% ($123.00), and 61.8% ($135.46). The current price is at the 61.8% level, acting as a critical support/resistance zone. A break above this level would target the 78.6% retracement ($150.00), while a drop below $123.00 could trigger a retest of the 50% level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of NBIS using the RSI overbought strategy (2022–2025) reveals a 56.76% win rate over 3 days and a 67.57% win rate over 30 days, with an average return of 15.96%. This aligns with the current technical setup, where the RSI near 68 and bullish candlestick patterns suggest continued momentum. The strategy’s success underscores the stock’s resilience in overbought conditions, supported by strong fundamentals like the $17.4B Microsoft deal and a 106.29% revenue growth. However, traders should monitor the 70 RSI threshold and Bollinger Band width contraction for early reversal signals.