Nebius Group Surges 12% — What’s Fueling the AI Infrastructure Play’s Momentum?

• Nebius (NBIS) rockets 11.58% to $49.43, nearing its 52W high of $55.75
• Goldman Sachs initiates coverage with 'Buy' rating, $68 price target implying 38% upside
• Sector news highlights AI compliance challenges as Nebius expands GPU infrastructure in Europe

Nebius Group’s explosive rally on July 14th spotlights its growing dominance in AI compute infrastructure, fueled by bullish analyst calls and strategic partnerships. The stock’s surge from $48.80 to $51.40 intraday underscores investor enthusiasm for its full-stack software solutions and cost efficiencies in the AI cloud market.

Goldman Sachs Buy Rating Ignites AI Infrastructure Play
Nebius’ double-digit surge stems directly from Goldman Sachs’ initiation of coverage with a 'Buy' rating and $68 price target. Analyst Alex Duval highlighted the company’s strategic advantages: its full-stack AI cloud platform, cost leadership, and global expansion via NVIDIA’s Grace Blackwell Superchip deployment in Europe. The firm emphasized Nebius’ valuation at 3x EV/Sales—well below peer CoreWeave’s 5x—and its role as a pure-play beneficiary of generative AI’s compute boom. Institutional buying surged, with top funds like DA Davidson upgrading to $55 targets as Nebius capitalizes on $2B in new infrastructure investments.

Bullish Technicals and High-Impact Call Options
Technical indicators signal mixed momentum:
• 200-day MA: $30.44 (far below current price)
• RSI: 43.26 (oversold recovery)
• Bollinger Bands: Above middle band ($49.08) with upper resistance at $54.17
• MACD: Histogram at -1.30, suggesting bearish divergence but bullish price action dominance

Aggressive bulls should target NBIS20250718C50 and NBIS20250718C49 calls:
NBIS20250718C50 (strike $50):
• Delta: 0.46 | Gamma: 0.086 | Theta: -0.37
• Leverage Ratio: 65.75% | Implied Volatility: 80.33%
• Top Option by turnover ($1.14M), this call captures Nebius’ potential climb toward $55.75. A 5% upside to $51.90 yields max payoff of $1.90, while gamma amplifies gains in volatile swings.

NBIS20250718C49 (strike $49):
• Delta: 0.55 | Gamma: 0.0797 | Theta: -0.42
• Leverage Ratio: 22.93% | Implied Volatility: 86.13%
• High gamma sensitivity rewards directional bets, with a 5% move to $51.90 unlocking $2.90 in payoff. Theta decay remains moderate vs. deeper ITM contracts.

Action Hook: Bulls should buy the July $50 call on dips below $0.60, targeting $1.20+ by end of week. Watch $51.40 resistance for profit-taking opportunities.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
The backtest of NBIS's performance after an intraday surge of 12% shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate and maximum return are relatively high at 53.26% and 2.00%, respectively, the 10-day and 30-day win rates are lower at 53.26% and 47.83%, respectively. This suggests that while NBIS can capitalize on short-term volatility, its longer-term performance may be more muted.

Nebius’ AI Play Still Has Legs — But Watch These Levels
Nebius Group’s surge is no flash in the pan: its AI compute moat, Goldman’s validation, and $1.4B cash war chest support sustained momentum. However, resistance at $51.40 and the $54.17 Bollinger Band upper limit demand close attention. Sector leader Amazon (AMZN) +0.5% signals tech sector resilience, but Nebius’ high beta (3.25) amplifies both upside and volatility risks. Trade Insight: Fade rallies above $52 until it closes above $54; initiate puts at $55 for profit if momentum stalls. This is a pure-play bet on AI’s compute revolution—ride it, but respect the stops.