Nebius Group Stock Surges 49.42% on $17.4B Microsoft AI Deal, Hits Highest Since Sept 2025

Nebius Group’s stock surged 49.42% on Monday, marking its highest level since September 2025, with an intraday gain of 54.04%. The rally followed a landmark $17.4 billion contract with Microsoft, expandable to $19.4 billion, to supply AI infrastructure. The deal, announced in late August, positions Nebius as a key player in meeting Microsoft’s urgent demand for high-performance computing resources to support generative AI development.

The partnership validates Nebius’ core competencies in scalable AI infrastructure, aligning with Microsoft’s Azure cloud needs. The long-term agreement provides revenue visibility, reducing risks tied to its data center expansion. Analysts highlight the flexibility to scale with Microsoft’s growing AI workloads, ensuring sustained demand for Nebius’ GPU resources.

Strategic expansion plans, including greenfield projects in New Jersey, aim to enhance capacity for hyperscalers and AI labs. CEO Arkady Volozh emphasized the contract’s role in accelerating AI cloud growth, with full-stack services tailored for intensive workloads. The company’s recent financial performance further bolstered confidence, reporting a 625% year-over-year revenue increase and positive adjusted EBITDA.

Market sentiment remains bullish, with the stock up 250% year-to-date, outpacing broader tech benchmarks. Analysts note Nebius’ unique value proposition—proprietary software-hardware integration—as a competitive edge. Technical indicators, including a pennant breakout pattern, suggest potential for further gains, though risks like capital intensity and sector volatility persist.

As global demand for AI infrastructure intensifies, Nebius’ focus on high-performance solutions positions it to capture a larger share of the market. The Microsoft deal, combined with strategic partnerships and execution on expansion plans, reinforces its role in shaping the AI ecosystem. While challenges remain, the company’s momentum underscores its potential to sustain growth amid evolving industry dynamics.