Nebius Group (NBIS) Surges 5.5% on EBITDA Turnaround and AI Infrastructure Hype

Summary
• Nebius Group’s stock (NBIS) surges 5.5% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $71.49
• CEO Arkady Volozh announces core business EBITDA positivity and $1B run-rate revenue guidance
• Options volume spikes 20-fold on August 15 expiration contracts
• Dynamic PE ratio at -36.19 signals aggressive growth bets despite losses

Nebius Group’s stock is on fire as the AI infrastructure platform reports a pivotal EBITDA turnaround in its core business. With revenue surging 625% to $105.1M and a revised $1B annual run-rate target, bulls are piling in. The stock’s 5.5% intraday gain reflects a perfect storm of demand for AI compute and strategic power expansion plans. Technicals and options data suggest this momentum is far from over.

EBITDA Positivity and AI Demand Fuel Rally
Nebius Group’s 5.5% intraday surge stems from a critical earnings report showing positive adjusted EBITDA in its core AI infrastructure business. CEO Arkady Volozh emphasized the company’s aggressive 1GW power expansion by 2026, aligning with surging global demand for generative AI compute. The $1B run-rate revenue guidance, up from $900M, signals investor confidence in scaling profitability. Analysts highlight that while overall EBITDA losses widened to $58.1M, the core business’s breakeven marks a strategic inflection point. This narrative, combined with S&P Global’s 28.5% price jump tracking, ignited a buying frenzy.

Data Processing Sector Lags as Amazon Drags
The Data Processing & Outsourced Services sector underperforms as Amazon (AMZN) declines 0.21%. Nebius’s 5.5% gain starkly contrasts with the sector’s muted response to AI infrastructure news. While peers like CoreWeave face skepticism, Nebius’s EBITDA turnaround and $1B revenue target position it as a clear outperformer. The sector’s focus on cost-cutting and efficiency contrasts with Nebius’s capital-intensive growth strategy, highlighting divergent investor priorities.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on AI Infrastructure Momentum
• 200-day average: 33.72 (far below current price)
• RSI: 72.86 (overbought territory)
• MACD: 2.52 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 68.9 (above upper band of 60.37)

Nebius’s technicals scream short-term bullish momentum. The RSI at 72.86 suggests overbought conditions, but the MACD’s 2.52 and rising histogram confirm strength. Bollinger Bands show price is 8.2% above the upper band, indicating a breakaway move. For options, focus on NBIS20250815C67 and NBIS20250815C69:

• NBIS20250815C67 (Call, $67 strike, 8/15 expiry):
- IV: 70.72% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.634 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.380 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.052 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $412,862 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside (72.3): $5.30/share
- Why it works: High gamma and IV make this ideal for a 5% move, with theta decay manageable given the 5-day expiry.

• NBIS20250815C69 (Call, $69 strike, 8/15 expiry):
- IV: 75.29% (extreme volatility)
- Delta: 0.526 (balanced exposure)
- Theta: -0.367 (aggressive decay)
- Gamma: 0.052 (strong price sensitivity)
- Turnover: $222,035 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside (72.3): $3.30/share
- Why it works: High IV and gamma create leverage for a 5% move, though theta decay requires swift execution.

For ETFs, the KraneShares AI & Tech ETF (AGIX) at 32.85 (+0.08%) offers sector exposure. Aggressive bulls should target a break above 71.49 (52-week high) to validate the breakout.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
The backtest of NBIS's performance after a 5% intraday increase shows favorable results, with win rates and returns indicating positive short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 58.70%, the 10-Day win rate is 63.04%, and the 30-Day win rate is 68.48%, suggesting that NBIS tends to perform well in the immediate aftermath of such events. The maximum return observed was 34.83% over 30 days, which implies that there is potential for significant gains following a 5% intraday surge.

Nebius at Inflection Point: Buy the Breakout or Hedge the Volatility?
Nebius Group’s 5.5% surge reflects a pivotal shift in market perception, driven by EBITDA positivity and $1B revenue guidance. Technicals and options data confirm short-term bullish momentum, with the 71.49 52-week high as a critical level. While Amazon’s -0.21% drag highlights sector fragility, Nebius’s AI infrastructure play remains unique. Investors should target a break above 71.49 for confirmation or use NBIS20250815C67 for leveraged exposure. Watch for a 70.00 support test and sector rotation into AI plays.