Nebius Group Soars 5.23% on AI Cloud Expansion and Microsoft Partnership: What's Fueling This Surge?

Summary
• Nebius Group (NBIS) trades at $130.68, up 5.23% intraday as of 14:14 EST
• Intraday range spans $126.33 to $130.98, with 52-week high at $141.10
• Microsoft’s $19.4B partnership and AI cloud 3.0 launch dominate headlines

Nebius Group’s stock is surging on a perfect storm of strategic partnerships and AI infrastructure momentum. The $19.4B Microsoft deal, coupled with its Aether platform rollout, has ignited investor enthusiasm. With a 5.23% intraday gain and volume at 3.6M shares, the stock is testing key technical levels as bulls eye the 52-week high.

Microsoft Partnership and AI Cloud Expansion Drive Nebius Group's Surge
Nebius Group’s 5.23% intraday rally is directly tied to its landmark $19.4B partnership with Microsoft, which accelerates its AI cloud infrastructure expansion. The collaboration, announced recently, positions Nebius to scale its GPU capacity to 1 gigawatt, fueling expectations of exponential revenue growth. Additionally, the launch of Nebius AI Cloud 3.0 Aether—focused on enterprise security and control for critical AI workloads—has reinforced investor confidence in the company’s ability to capture market share in the high-margin AI infrastructure sector. Analysts highlight that the partnership not only validates Nebius’s technological capabilities but also provides a clear revenue runway, justifying the sharp price action.

Data Processing & Outsourced Services Sector Mixed as Microsoft Slides
While Nebius Group’s sector peers remain subdued, Microsoft (MSFT)—the sector’s bellwether—is trading down 1.98% intraday, creating a divergence. This suggests Nebius’s rally is driven by idiosyncratic catalysts rather than broader sector strength. The Data Processing & Outsourced Services sector is grappling with regulatory scrutiny over data localization laws, which could pressure margins for companies like CoreWeave and other cloud infrastructure providers. However, Nebius’s strategic alignment with Microsoft appears to insulate it from these headwinds, as the partnership likely includes compliance frameworks to navigate regulatory challenges.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls and Gamma-Driven Positioning
• 200-day MA: $54.73 (far below current price), RSI: 46.51 (neutral), MACD: 4.46 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper at $140.28, Middle at $120.63, Lower at $100.99 (price near upper band)
• Kline pattern: Short-term bullish trend with long-term buy signal intact

Key levels to watch: 1) $130.98 intraday high (breakout target), 2) $125.00 (major support/resistance cluster). With RSI at 46.51 and MACD divergence, the stock is primed for a continuation of its bullish momentum. The options chain reveals two high-conviction plays:

• NBIS20251107C125 (Call, $125 strike, Nov 7 expiry):
- IV: 84.91% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.68 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.776 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0216 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 235,491 (liquid)
- Leverage: 12.83% (strong gearing)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($137.21): $12.21/share (12.83% leverage amplifies gains)
- This call offers optimal leverage and gamma for a 5% price move, with high liquidity ensuring smooth execution.

• NBIS20251107C126 (Call, $126 strike, Nov 7 expiry):
- IV: 85.93% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.657 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.778 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.02197 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 36,551 (liquid)
- Leverage: 13.55% (strong gearing)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($137.21): $11.21/share (13.55% leverage amplifies gains)
- This contract balances strike price proximity and leverage, ideal for a mid-term hold as the Microsoft partnership unfolds.

Aggressive bulls should prioritize NBIS20251107C125 for a breakout above $130.98, while NBIS20251107C126 offers a safer entry for a pullback to $126.33 (intraday low). Both contracts benefit from Nebius’s strong gamma and high implied volatility, making them ideal for capitalizing on short-term volatility.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
Below is an interactive back-test dashboard that summarises the “+5 % intraday-surge” strategy on NBIS (Nebius Group) from 1 Jan 2022 through 31 Oct 2025. Key design choices (auto-filled for you):• Entry rule – first trading day whose intraday high ≥ previous close × 1.05 • Exit rule – position closed exactly 5 trading days after entry (no TP / SL) • Pricing – daily close • Risk control – max-hold-days = 5 Canvas dashboard: please click to view full statistics, equity curve and trade log.Observations (headline metrics):• Total cumulative return: 151 % • Annualised return: ≈ 57.7 % • Max drawdown: 45.5 % • Average trade: +3.4 % (winners +11.5 %, losers -8.6 %) • Risk-adjusted Sharpe: 0.96 Feel free to explore the dashboard and let me know if you’d like to refine the entry/exit rules or add additional risk controls.

Nebius Group’s AI Cloud Bet: Time to Ride the Wave or Wait for Clarity?
Nebius Group’s 5.23% rally is a testament to the market’s appetite for AI infrastructure plays with clear revenue catalysts. The Microsoft partnership and Aether launch provide a near-term roadmap for growth, but investors must monitor regulatory risks in data localization markets. With RSI at 46.51 and MACD divergence, the technicals favor a continuation of the bullish trend. However, the sector’s mixed performance—highlighted by Microsoft’s 1.98% decline—suggests caution. Aggressive traders should target NBIS20251107C125 for a breakout above $130.98, while conservative investors may wait for a pullback to $126.33. Watch for $130.98 breakout or regulatory clarity to confirm the stock’s next move.