Nebius Group Shares Rally 8.38% in Two-Day Surge as Technical Indicators Signal Mixed Momentum Amid Key Support Levels

Nebius Group (NBIS) has seen a 5.30% gain in the most recent session, marking a two-day rally of 8.38%. The price action reflects a mix of bullish and bearish momentum, with recent lows in the $81.71–$83.54 range and highs reaching $93.69. Key support levels are identified at $88.63 (2025-11-13) and $83.54 (2025-11-14), while resistance appears at $102.22 (2025-11-11) and $109.95 (2025-11-10). The current close at $90.54 suggests a potential consolidation phase above the 2025-11-13 support level, though bearish candlestick patterns like the "Bearish Engulfing" on 2025-11-14 and "Hanging Man" on 2025-11-13 hint at possible short-term reversals.

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Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (approx. $88.00) is currently below the 100-day ($92.00) and 200-day ($95.00) averages, indicating a bearish bias in the medium-term trend. However, the recent price action has pushed the 50-day MA upward, creating a narrowing gap with the 100-day MA. A crossover above the 100-day MA would signal a short-term bullish shift, while the 200-day MA remains a critical long-term resistance. The price’s proximity to the 50-day MA ($90.54) suggests a potential test of this level for trend validation.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has shown a recent positive divergence, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. However, the KDJ indicator is currently in overbought territory (K: ~85, D: ~75), suggesting potential exhaustion in the rally. A bearish crossover in KDJ could trigger a pullback, particularly if the price fails to hold above the 50-day MA. The confluence of MACD bullishness and KDJ overbought conditions highlights a high-probability scenario for a short-term correction.

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Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded recently, with the 20-day Bollinger Bands widening to a range of $81.71–$93.69. The price is currently near the upper band, indicating overbought conditions. A reversion toward the 20-day moving average ($91.00) would align with the band’s contraction phase, suggesting a potential consolidation. If the bands begin to narrow further, it may precede a breakout or breakdown, with the lower band at $88.63 acting as a key support.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged on the recent rally, with the last two sessions averaging ~24.8 million shares traded daily, significantly above the 14-day average of ~18 million. This validates the strength of the price increase. However, volume has shown a slight decline on the second day of the rally, which could signal weakening momentum. A continuation of the rally would require sustained volume above 20 million shares to confirm conviction.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI stands at ~68, approaching overbought territory. While not yet exceeding 70, this level suggests a high probability of a near-term pullback. A drop below 60 would indicate weakening momentum, while a sustained move above 70 could extend the rally but would carry elevated risk. The RSI’s alignment with the overbought KDJ indicator reinforces the likelihood of a correction.

Fibonacci Retracement

The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $98.50 has been tested multiple times as a key support, most recently on 2025-10-22 and 2025-11-14. The price’s current position near the 50% retracement level ($90.50) suggests a potential pivot point for short-term trading. A break below $98.50 would invalidate the bullish case and target the 61.8% level at $88.63.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy of buying Nebius Group when KDJ is overbought and selling at the 5-day low has historically underperformed, as evidenced by the recent test of the $98.50 Fibonacci level without a sustained rebound. A refined approach would integrate trend analysis—prioritizing entries when the 50-day MA crosses above the 100-day MA—and risk management via stop-loss orders at the 61.8% retracement level. Combining this with a confirmation of RSI and Bollinger Bands contraction could improve the probability of successful trades.

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