Nebius Group Rises 0.42% with $920M Volume (Rank 101) as Analysts Clash on Overvaluation Risks

Nebius Group (NBIS) rose 0.42% on August 20, 2025, with a trading volume of $0.92 billion, ranking 101st in the market. Analysts highlight mixed signals about the stock’s valuation amid recent performance and financial metrics.

Despite a 120% year-to-date gain and 51% year-over-year revenue growth, valuation models suggest the stock is overextended. A discounted cash flow analysis estimates its intrinsic value at $30.06 per share—123.5% below the current price of $67.19. Similarly, a price-to-earnings ratio of 84.3x far exceeds the software industry average of 36.5x, indicating significant overvaluation by traditional measures.

Market sentiment remains divided. While robust earnings and revenue growth have fueled optimism, recent volatility—such as a 7% drop last week due to shifting software stock dynamics—underscores risks. Analysts caution that without substantial earnings growth or improved sentiment, the stock’s premium may not be sustainable. Narrative-based investing approaches also show divergent fair value estimates, ranging from $47 to $90, reflecting varying assumptions about AI demand and competitive pressures.

A backtest of a strategy buying the top 500 stocks by daily trading volume and holding for one day from 2022 to 2025 yielded a 0.98% average 1-day return, with a cumulative 31.52% gain over 365 days. This highlights short-term momentum opportunities but also underscores the strategy’s exposure to market timing risks.