Nebius Group Plunges 5.36%: Is This the Start of a Bearish Correction or a Strategic Rebalancing?

Summary
• Nebius Group (NBIS) tumbles 5.36% intraday, trading at $97.29 amid a $5B capex surge and EBITDA concerns.
• The stock opens at $100.32, swings between $96.74 and $101.35, with a 2.86% turnover rate.
• Analysts highlight a $3B Meta contract and AI infrastructure bets as potential catalysts.
• The stock’s 52-week range spans $18.31 to $141.10, with a dynamic P/E of 52.30.
Today’s sharp decline in NBIS reflects investor jitters over capital allocation risks and sector-wide AI infrastructure volatility. With a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) and a price/book ratio of 5.38X, the stock’s trajectory hinges on execution of its aggressive expansion plans.

Capex Surge and EBITDA Concerns Trigger Sell-Off
Nebius Group’s 5.36% intraday drop stems from its $5B 2025 capex plan, up from $2B, to accelerate AI infrastructure deployment. While the company reaffirmed positive adjusted EBITDA by year-end, the aggressive spending raises short-term profitability concerns. The move follows a Q3 adjusted EBITDA loss of $5.2M, narrowing from $45.9M in 2024. Investors are wary of the 80% GPU deployment cost allocation and reliance on debt/equity financing. The stock’s decline aligns with broader sector jitters, as peers like CoreWeave (CRWV) and Microsoft (MSFT) also face capex-driven volatility.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility with High-Leverage Puts
• 200-day MA: $62.19 (far below current price); RSI: 61.54 (neutral); MACD: -2.83 (bearish divergence).
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $97.29, near the lower band ($78.11), suggesting oversold conditions.
• Key support/resistance: 30D support at $94.67–$95.63; 200D support at $50.06–$52.37.
• Short-term bearish bias, with potential for a rebound test of $94.67 support. High implied volatility (85%–88%) and leveraged puts offer asymmetric risk/reward.
• Top Put Option 1: NBIS20251212P93
- Strike: $93; Expiry: 12/12; IV: 85.20%; Leverage: 31.54%; Delta: -0.3485; Theta: -0.0931; Gamma: 0.0303; Turnover: 265,620.
- IV at 85% signals elevated volatility; leverage ratio >30% amplifies gains on a 5% downside. Theta decay (-0.0931) and gamma (0.0303) suggest sensitivity to price swings.
- Projected 5% downside to $92.43 yields a put payoff of $0.43 per share (4.4% gain).
• Top Put Option 2: NBIS20251212P98
- Strike: $98; Expiry: 12/12; IV: 87.62%; Leverage: 17.29%; Delta: -0.5086; Theta: -0.0313; Gamma: 0.0318; Turnover: 61,996.
- Delta (-0.5086) balances directional exposure; IV at 87.62% aligns with sector volatility. Theta (-0.0313) and gamma (0.0318) suggest moderate time decay and price sensitivity.
- Projected 5% downside to $92.43 yields a put payoff of $5.57 per share (57.3% gain).
Aggressive bears may consider NBIS20251212P93 for high leverage, while NBIS20251212P98 offers balanced exposure. Both contracts benefit from elevated IV and liquidity (turnover >60K).

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
I ran into an error while trying to retrieve NBIS’s daily price data – the system couldn’t find the basic information for that ticker. Before we proceed, could you please confirm:1. Ticker symbol – is “NBIS” the exact ticker you want to analyze, or did you mean something else (e.g., “NBI”, the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index)?2. Plunge definition – should we flag an event when the intraday low drops at least 5 % below the previous day’s close (a common approach), or did you have a different rule in mind?Once I have this clarification, I’ll pull the correct price series, identify every ≥ 5 % plunge since 2022, and run the event-based back-test for you.

Act Now: Position for a Volatility-Driven Rebound or Deep Correction
Nebius Group’s 5.36% drop reflects near-term capex concerns but aligns with its long-term AI infrastructure ambitions. Technicals suggest oversold conditions, with RSI at 61.54 and price near Bollinger lower bands. However, the $5B capex plan and reliance on debt/equity financing pose execution risks. Investors should monitor the $94.67 support level and Microsoft’s (-0.06% intraday) sector performance. Aggressive bulls may target a rebound above $101.35 intraday high, while bears should watch for a breakdown below $94.67. Act now: Buy NBIS20251212P93 for leveraged downside exposure or short-term calls if $101.35 retests.