Nebius Group Plummets 5.73%: What's Behind the Sudden Slide?

Summary
• Nebius Group (NBIS) trades at $123.32, down 5.73% from its $130.82 previous close
• Intraday range spans $122.02 to $134.93, reflecting volatile trading
• Analysts highlight $17.4B Microsoft deal and $1B capital raise as key catalysts

Nebius Group’s stock has swung wildly amid a mix of bullish analyst upgrades and bearish execution risks. The $17.4B Microsoft contract and $1B public offering have fueled both optimism and caution, while technical indicators suggest a critical juncture. With the IT sector rallying and Amazon surging 4.62%, investors must parse through conflicting signals to gauge NBIS’s next move.

Capital Raises and Market Sentiment Weigh on Nebius Group
Nebius Group’s sharp intraday decline stems from a combination of capital-raising activities and market skepticism. The company’s $1 billion public offering of Class A shares at $92.50—priced below its 52-week high of $141.1—has raised concerns about shareholder dilution. Simultaneously, the $2.75 billion convertible note offering, while intended to fund data-center expansion, has triggered profit-taking after a recent 43.8% rally. Analysts at Seaport Research caution that rapid expansion and project complexity could strain execution, while the recent gap-down move suggests short-term profit-taking amid broader market uncertainty.

IT Services Sector Gains Momentum as Amazon Surges 4.62%
The IT Services sector, led by Amazon’s 4.62% intraday gain, has outperformed Nebius Group’s 5.73% drop. While Amazon benefits from AI-driven cloud demand and stable cash flows, Nebius faces execution risks tied to its aggressive expansion. The sector’s broader rally underscores investor preference for established players, contrasting with Nebius’s high-growth, high-volatility profile. However, the Microsoft contract remains a unique differentiator, offering long-term revenue visibility absent in many peers.

Options with High Leverage and Liquidity Offer Strategic Entry Points
• RSI: 47.03 (neutral) • MACD: 5.08 (bullish) • 200D MA: $55.19 (far below price) • Bollinger Bands: $100.86–$140.68 (price near lower band)

Key levels to watch include the 30D support zone ($107.46–$108.20) and the 200D MA ($55.19). The RSI’s neutral reading and MACD’s bullish divergence suggest potential for a rebound, but the 52W low ($17.39) remains a distant floor. For options, focus on high-liquidity contracts with moderate deltas and strong gamma:

• NBIS20251107P120 (Put, $120 strike, 2025-11-07):
- IV: 95.41% (high volatility)
- Leverage: 29.17% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.4023 (sensitive to price drops)
- Theta: -0.0897 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0283 (responsive to price swings)
- Turnover: $310,329 (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% downside: $2.00 (max profit if price falls to $117.15)
- Why it stands out: High IV and gamma make this put ideal for a short-term bearish bet with strong liquidity.

• NBIS20251107P121 (Put, $121 strike, 2025-11-07):
- IV: 98.41% (very high)
- Leverage: 25.37% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.4320 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0800 (moderate decay)
- Gamma: 0.0279 (strong responsiveness)
- Turnover: $94,490 (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% downside: $3.00 (max profit if price falls to $117.15)
- Why it stands out: Slightly higher strike price offers more upside if the decline accelerates, with robust gamma and IV to amplify returns.

Aggressive bulls may consider NBIS20251107C125 into a bounce above $125.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
I’ve completed a first-pass attempt but, because intraday high / low data are not included in the data set we pulled, the system could not reliably identify “-6 % intraday plunge” days—hence no valid trade list was generated and the back-test returned an empty result.To move forward there are two practical options:1. Proxy method (quickest) • Treat a day as a “-6 % intraday plunge” if the closing price finishes 6 % or more below the previous day’s close. • This uses fields we already have, lets us finish the test immediately, and is often a reasonable approximation when true intraday data are unavailable.2. True intraday method (more precise) • Supply 1-minute (or at least high/low) data so we can flag days where intraday low / previous-close ≤ -6 %. • We would then rerun the event-date extraction and the back-test.Please let me know which approach you prefer (or provide the intraday file if you have it).

Nebius Group at a Crossroads: Watch for Catalysts in Q3 Earnings and Microsoft Execution
Nebius Group’s near-term trajectory hinges on execution of its Microsoft contract and Q3 earnings. A breakdown below $120 could trigger further profit-taking, while a rebound above $125 may reignite bullish momentum. Investors should monitor the $116–$117 support cluster and the $130–$135 resistance zone. With Amazon surging 4.62%, the IT sector’s strength offers a tailwind, but Nebius’s high leverage and capital-raising risks demand caution. Watch for $120 breakdown or Q3 earnings surprises to dictate next steps.