Nebius Group Plunges 5.75% on AI Cloud Launch Amid Volatile Options Activity

Summary
• Nebius Group (NBIS) tumbles 5.75% intraday to $76.295, opening at $84.00 and hitting a low of $75.48.
• Launch of Nebius AI Cloud 3.1 with NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra sparks mixed market sentiment.
• Options chain shows high leverage ratios and implied volatility, with 20 contracts trading.

Amid a sharp intraday decline, Nebius Group’s stock reacts to its latest AI cloud platform launch. The $76.295 price reflects a 5.75% drop from the previous close of $80.95, with a 6.29% turnover rate. The product update highlights NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra integration but faces immediate market skepticism, amplified by a surge in options activity.

AI Cloud Launch Sparks Profit-Taking Amid Valuation Concerns
Nebius Group’s 5.75% intraday drop follows the announcement of Nebius AI Cloud 3.1, which integrates NVIDIA’s Blackwell Ultra compute. While the platform promises enhanced AI training and operational transparency, the market’s reaction suggests profit-taking after a 174.31% year-to-date rally. The stock’s 52-week high of $141.10 contrasts with its current price, indicating short-term volatility. Analysts note the P/E ratio of 41.07 and a 52-week low of $18.31 highlight valuation risks, as investors reassess growth prospects amid high implied volatility in options.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Puts and Calls for Short-Term Volatility
• 200-day average: $64.425 (below current price); RSI: 41.93 (oversold); MACD: -4.28 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $79.76–$105.70 (current price near lower band)
• Key support/resistance: 75–77 (30D) and 50–52 (200D)

Technical indicators suggest a short-term bearish bias, with RSI in oversold territory and MACD signaling divergence. The 75–77 support/resistance cluster is critical for near-term direction. Two options stand out for volatility-driven strategies:

• NBIS20251226P75 (Put): Strike $75, Expiry 12/26, IV 81.91%, Leverage 21.41%, Delta -0.43, Theta -0.052, Gamma 0.038, Turnover $302,744
- IV: High volatility; Leverage: Amplifies downside potential; Delta: Moderate sensitivity to price moves; Gamma: Strong sensitivity to price acceleration. A 5% downside to $72.48 would yield a put payoff of $2.52, offering 8.4% return on strike.
• NBIS20251226C75 (Call): Strike $75, Expiry 12/26, IV 84.84%, Leverage 15.84%, Delta 0.57, Theta -0.369, Gamma 0.037, Turnover $113,029
- IV: Elevated volatility; Delta: Strong directional exposure; Theta: Aggressive time decay. A 5% rebound to $79.56 would yield a call payoff of $4.56, a 60.8% return on strike.

Aggressive bulls may consider NBIS20251226C75 into a bounce above $77.50, while short-term bears should target NBIS20251226P75 if support at $75 breaks.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
The backtest of NBIS's performance after a -6% intraday plunge from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 59.85%, the 10-Day win rate is 64.96%, and the 30-Day win rate is 72.99%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 45.40% over 30 days, suggesting that NBIS has the potential for significant gains following a substantial pullback.

Act Now: Short-Term Volatility Presents Strategic Options Opportunities
Nebius Group’s 5.75% intraday drop reflects immediate profit-taking post-announcement, but the 174.31% YTD rally and 41.07 P/E ratio suggest mixed signals. The 75–77 support/resistance cluster and 52-week low of $18.31 are critical for trend validation. With AMZN (sector leader) up 0.13%, investors should monitor the 75-level break for directional clarity. Watch for a breakdown below $75 or a rebound above $77.50 to trigger options plays, leveraging high IV and leverage ratios for short-term gains.