Nebius Group Plunges 5% Amid Volatile Intraday Action: What's Fueling the Selloff?

Summary
• Nebius Group (NBIS) trades at $64.88, down 5.03% from its $68.32 previous close
• Microsoft (MSFT), sector leader, declines 1.02% as application software sector faces headwinds
• Technical indicators signal bearish momentum with RSI at 47.12 and MACD histogram negative

Today’s intraday volatility in Nebius Group has drawn sharp attention as the stock tumbles below key moving averages amid a broader sector selloff. With Microsoft dragging down the application software sector, traders are dissecting whether NBIS’s decline reflects broader market sentiment or specific technical triggers. The stock’s 5.03% drop—its lowest since $55.63—has activated critical support levels, while options activity suggests heightened bearish positioning.

Bearish Momentum Intensifies as Technical Indicators Signal Short-Term Weakness
Nebius Group’s intraday selloff is driven by a confluence of technical factors. The stock has pierced below its 30-day moving average ($62.26) and 200-day average ($37.70), triggering algorithmic selling pressure. The MACD histogram (-0.498) confirms bearish divergence, while RSI (47.12) suggests oversold conditions are not yet reached. Bollinger Bands show the price is trading 17.7% below the middle band, amplifying the likelihood of further downward correction. The lack of company-specific news means this move is purely technical, with traders capitalizing on short-term momentum shifts.

Application Software Sector Under Pressure as Microsoft Drags Down Peer Nebius Group
The application software sector is broadly weaker, with Microsoft’s 1.02% decline acting as a drag on peers. While MSFT’s drop reflects broader tech sector concerns, Nebius Group’s 5.03% decline is amplified by its own technical vulnerabilities. The sector’s underperformance highlights a risk-on environment for high-growth tech stocks, where earnings multiples and momentum are being re-evaluated. However, NBIS’s move is more pronounced due to its lower liquidity and higher volatility profile compared to sector leaders.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Puts and Calls for Aggressive Traders
• 200-day average: $37.695 (far below) • RSI: 47.12 (neutral) • MACD: 3.988 (bearish divergence) • Bollinger Bands: $55.63–$79.19 (price at lower band) • Turnover rate: 3.65% (moderate)

Key levels to watch include the 30-day support ($50.90) and 200-day support ($21.06). Short-term bearish momentum suggests a test of the $64.12 intraday low, with potential for a rebound above $67.88. The sector’s weakness, led by Microsoft’s decline, adds macro risk. No leveraged ETF data is available for direct correlation.

Top Option 1: NBIS20250912P62 (Put)
• Code: NBIS20250912P62 • Type: Put • Strike: $62 • Expiry: 2025-09-12 • IV: 76.62% (high volatility) • LVR: 32.22% (high leverage) • Delta: -0.3298 (moderate sensitivity) • Theta: -0.0522 (moderate time decay) • Gamma: 0.0418 (responsive to price moves) • Turnover: $222,453 (high liquidity)
This put option offers aggressive downside exposure with a 32% leverage ratio and 76% implied volatility. A 5% price drop to $61.64 would yield a payoff of $0.36 per contract, aligning with the stock’s bearish technicals.

Top Option 2: NBIS20250912C60 (Call)
• Code: NBIS20250912C60 • Type: Call • Strike: $60 • Expiry: 2025-09-12 • IV: 70.64% (high volatility) • LVR: 10.33% (moderate leverage) • Delta: 0.7687 (high sensitivity) • Theta: -0.2786 (high time decay) • Gamma: 0.0382 (moderate responsiveness) • Turnover: $35,200 (reasonable liquidity)
This call offers bullish potential with a 70% IV and 76% delta. A rebound above $67.88 could trigger a gamma-driven rally, but theta decay (-0.2786) suggests urgency for near-term action. Aggressive bulls may consider NBIS20250912C60 into a bounce above $67.88.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance

Act Now: Position for Volatility as NBIS Nears Critical Support
The selloff in Nebius Group reflects a short-term bearish technical setup, with key support at $64.12 and resistance at $67.88. While the sector’s weakness—led by Microsoft’s 1.02% decline—adds macro risk, NBIS’s own indicators suggest a potential rebound if buyers step in above $64.12. Traders should monitor the 30-day moving average ($62.26) as a critical inflection point. For aggressive positioning, the NBIS20250912P62 put offers high leverage on a 5% downside scenario, while the C60 call provides directional exposure. Watch for a breakdown below $64.12 or a rebound above $67.88 to confirm the next move.