Nebius Group Plummets 5.1% Amid AI Infrastructure Volatility: What’s Fueling the Selloff?

Summary
• Nebius Group (NBIS) slumps 5.1% intraday to $90.21, erasing $5B in market cap
• $3B Meta AI deal and Q3 earnings miss clash with $141.1 52W high
• 24.7M shares traded (12.25% turnover) amid $2B 2026 revenue optimism

Today’s selloff in Nebius Group reflects a volatile clash between bullish long-term AI infrastructure demand and near-term operational headwinds. The stock’s 5.1% drop from its $99.5 opening price—despite a landmark Meta contract—highlights investor skepticism over execution risks and capital-raising dilution. With intraday swings from $102.69 to $87.51, the AI cloud sector’s kingmaker faces a critical juncture as its 374.7% annual total return now faces a 26.4% monthly correction.

Q3 Earnings Disappointment and Equity Offering Spark Sharp Selloff
Nebius Group’s 5.1% intraday decline stems from a perfect storm of short-term pressures: a $120M net loss widening from $43.6M a year earlier, revenue missing estimates by $9M, and a 25M-share equity offering to fund data center expansion. While the $3B Meta deal and $19B Microsoft contract signal long-term growth, investors are punishing the company for near-term dilution risks and operational hurdles. The earnings report also revealed a 355% revenue surge to $146.1M (excluding Toloka), but this was overshadowed by a $120M net loss and guidance for $2B Q4 revenue contingent on capacity growth.

Data Center Sector Suffers as Equinix Drags, Nebius Follows
The Data Center & Colocation Services sector mirrored Nebius’s decline, with sector leader Equinix (EQIX) down 0.15% intraday. While Equinix’s marginal drop reflects broader market caution, Nebius’s 5.1% selloff underscores its unique challenges: high debt, customer concentration, and capital-intensive expansion. The sector’s 569.58B projected 2034 market size offers long-term optimism, but near-term volatility persists as companies like Nebius and CoreWeave navigate execution risks and hyperscaler contract dependencies.

Bearish Technicals and High-Leverage Puts Signal Short-Side Opportunities
• 200-day MA: $59.54 (far below) | RSI: 32.26 (oversold) | MACD: -6.26 (bearish) | Bollinger Bands: $79.24–$137.74
• 30D MA: $112.33 (resistance) | 200D MA: $59.54 (support) | 52W range: $18.31–$141.10

Technical indicators confirm a short-term bearish trend despite a long-term bullish setup. Nebius is testing its 200D MA ($59.54) and lower Bollinger Band ($79.24), with RSI at oversold levels. The 30D MA ($112.33) acts as immediate resistance. Aggressive short-sellers may target the $83–$85 strike range, while long-term bulls should watch for a rebound above $102.69 (intraday high).

Top Options Picks:
• NBIS20251128P85 (Put): Strike $85, Expiry 11/28, IV 106.47%, Leverage 21.62%, Delta -0.366, Theta -0.142, Gamma 0.025, Turnover 168,218
– High leverage and moderate delta position this put for 54.72% price change potential if Nebius breaks below $85. Payoff under 5% downside: $10.21
• NBIS20251128P88 (Put): Strike $88, Expiry 11/28, IV 104.39%, Leverage 16.42%, Delta -0.447, Theta -0.113, Gamma 0.027, Turnover 166,890
– Strong liquidity and high gamma make this put ideal for volatility spikes. Payoff under 5% downside: $7.19

These puts capitalize on Nebius’s 32.26 RSI oversold condition and MACD bearish crossover. If $85 breaks, the 21.62% leverage ratio amplifies short-side gains. Aggressive bulls may consider a $102.69 retest before committing to longs.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
I wasn’t able to retrieve any price history for “NBIS.O”; the data source returned an empty result set, which suggests that either • the ticker symbol “NBIS.O” is not recognised in the database we can query, or • the instrument is very thinly traded / newly listed and therefore has no historical records dating back to 2022. To proceed with the back-test we’ll need a valid price series so we can locate the –5 % intraday draw-down dates. Could you please:1. Confirm that “NBIS.O” is the correct ticker (and, if possible, provide its primary exchange / data vendor code), or 2. Provide an alternative ticker that has the historical data available, or 3. Supply an external price file we can import.Once we have a usable price series, I’ll automatically detect every session where the stock fell at least 5 % intraday and run the event back-test from 2022-01-01 to today.

Bullish Long-Term Outlook Amid Short-Term Turbulence: Key Levels to Watch
Nebius Group’s 5.1% selloff is a short-term correction within a long-term bullish narrative. The $3B Meta deal and $2B Q4 revenue target justify a 48.5x P/E, but near-term execution risks and dilution pressures demand caution. Immediate support at $85 (lower Bollinger Band) and $79.24 (lower band) are critical. If Nebius holds above $85, the 32.26 RSI suggests a rebound; a breakdown below $79.24 could trigger a 52W low retest. Sector leader Equinix (-0.15%) remains stable, but Nebius’s 5.1% drop highlights its speculative nature. Watch for $85 support or a $102.69 breakout to confirm trend direction.