Nebius Group (NBIS) Surges 9% on AI Cloud 3.1 Launch and Acquisition Speculation – Is This the Next Big Buy?

Summary
• Nebius Group (NBIS) rockets 9.00% intraday to $85.12, breaking its 200-day high of $64.89.
• Analysts upgrade to 'Buy' as Meta and Microsoft contracts drive revenue growth to $550M in 2025.
• Options frenzy: 2025-12-26 $85 call (NBIS20251226C85) sees 216.67% price change ratio and 21.96% leverage.
• MarketBeat’s average target price of $144.71 suggests 68% upside from current levels.

Nebius Group’s 9% intraday surge has ignited a frenzy in the AI infrastructure sector, driven by its AI Cloud 3.1 launch with NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra hardware and a $5B Meta contract. With a 625% YoY revenue surge and a 140% YTD share price rally, the stock’s volatility reflects both optimism and execution risks. Traders are now parsing technicals and options data to gauge whether this breakout is a sustainable trend or a short-lived spike.

AI Cloud 3.1 and Meta Contract Fuel Short-Term Optimism
Nebius Group’s 9% intraday jump stems from its AI Cloud 3.1 upgrade, which integrates NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra hardware for enhanced inference capabilities, and a $5B three-year contract with Meta. These developments validate Nebius’ role in the AI infrastructure boom, with analysts noting its 625% YoY revenue growth and 106% QoQ acceleration. The stock’s surge also reflects speculation about potential buyouts by hyperscalers like Microsoft, given its 355% revenue jump post-rebrand and $19B market cap. However, the 9% move contrasts with a 141.1–18.31 52W range, suggesting short-term momentum may outpace fundamentals.

Data Processing Sector Quiet as Nebius Defies Trend
Options Playbook: Leverage 21.96% and 17.50% Contracts for High-Volatility Play
• 200-day average: $64.89 (far below current price)
• RSI: 33.6 (oversold)
• MACD: -5.66 (bearish), Histogram: -1.6 (improving)
• Bollinger Bands: $74.90–$107.35 (current price near 80% of range)
• 30D support/resistance: $94.08–$94.79 (above current price)

Key levels to watch: $85.53 (intraday high) and $80.16 (intraday low). The RSI’s oversold reading and MACD’s improving histogram suggest a potential rebound, but the 30D MA at $93.12 and 200D MA at $64.89 remain conflicting signals. Given the 9% intraday move, aggressive bulls should target the 2025-12-26 $85 call (NBIS20251226C85) and $83 call (NBIS20251226C83).

• NBIS20251226C85 (Call):
- Strike: $85, Expiry: 2025-12-26
- IV: 74.27% (high volatility), LVR: 21.96% (high leverage)
- Delta: 0.5345 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.4474 (rapid time decay), Gamma: 0.0424 (strong price sensitivity)
- Turnover: $287,827 (high liquidity)
- Payoff (5% upside): $85.12 → $89.38 → max(0, $89.38 - $85) = $4.38 per share
- This contract offers high leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a sustained breakout above $85.

• NBIS20251226C83 (Call):
- Strike: $83, Expiry: 2025-1226
- IV: 72.68% (high volatility), LVR: 17.50% (moderate leverage)
- Delta: 0.6208 (strong sensitivity), Theta: -0.4654 (rapid time decay), Gamma: 0.0415 (strong price sensitivity)
- Turnover: $72,121 (high liquidity)
- Payoff (5% upside): $85.12 → $89.38 → max(0, $89.38 - $83) = $6.38 per share
- This contract balances leverage and delta for a safer play on a $83–$85 breakout.

Aggressive bulls should consider NBIS20251226C83 into a close above $83.50 or NBIS20251226C85 if $85.53 holds. Both contracts benefit from high gamma and IV, amplifying returns in a volatile environment.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
The backtest of NBIS's performance following a 9% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 55.41%, the 10-Day win rate is 58.78%, and the 30-Day win rate is 64.19%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 35.26% over 30 days, suggesting that NBIS can deliver significant gains even after the initial 9% surge.

Bullish Breakout or Overbought Reversal? Watch $85.53 and $80.16
Nebius Group’s 9% intraday surge reflects a mix of AI Cloud 3.1 optimism and acquisition speculation, but technicals remain mixed. The RSI’s oversold reading and MACD’s improving histogram hint at a potential rebound, yet the 200D MA at $64.89 and 30D MA at $93.12 remain conflicting. Traders should monitor the $85.53 intraday high and $80.16 low for directional clues. If $85.53 holds, the NBIS20251226C85 call offers high leverage for a $89.38 target. Conversely, a breakdown below $80.16 could trigger a retest of the 52W low at $18.31. Meanwhile, sector leader Amazon (AMZN) remains flat at +0.22%, underscoring Nebius’ standalone momentum. Action: Buy NBIS20251226C83 into a $83.50 close or short NBIS20251226P85 if $85.53 fails to hold.