Nebius Group (NBIS) Surges 7.34% as Bullish Candlestick and MACD Signals Drive Momentum

Candlestick Theory

Nebius Group (NBIS) has surged 7.34% in the most recent session, extending a four-day winning streak with a cumulative gain of 19.20%. The recent price action suggests a bullish continuation pattern, supported by a series of higher highs and higher lows. Key resistance levels appear to be forming around the 106.60-108.58 range (recent highs), while support is likely near 93.25-99.55 (previous consolidation). A potential bullish engulfing pattern is emerging as the last four candles show strong buying pressure, with closing prices consistently near upper shadows. However, traders should monitor for a bearish reversal if the price fails to hold above 98.52, the recent low.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (DMA) currently sits below the 200-DMA, indicating a bearish bias in the intermediate term. However, the 50-DMA has recently crossed above the 100-DMA, forming a potential "death cross" reversal into a "golden cross," suggesting short-term momentum may be turning bullish. The 200-DMA at ~88.00 acts as a critical psychological level; if the price breaks above this, it could trigger a broader upward trend. Divergence between the 50-DMA and price action (e.g., price rising while the 50-DMA lags) may signal weakening momentum, warranting caution.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD line has crossed above the signal line, forming a bullish golden cross, while the histogram shows expanding positive momentum. This aligns with the KDJ stochastic oscillator, where the K-line (75.3) has crossed above the D-line (68.4), indicating overbought conditions. However, the RSI (not yet calculated here) should be cross-checked for confirmation, as overbought levels (>70) may precede a pullback. The KDJ’s "J" line at 81.2 suggests aggressive buying pressure, but a divergence between price and oscillator readings could foreshadow a correction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded recently, with the price hovering near the upper Bollinger Band (108.58), indicating overbought territory. The band width has widened from 3.5% to 5.8% over the past week, suggesting heightened market uncertainty. A break below the lower band (98.52) could trigger a retracement, while a sustained close above the upper band may signal a breakout. The 20-period midline at ~102.60 could act as a dynamic support/resistance pivot.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged in tandem with the recent price rally, with the most recent session’s volume (24.37M shares) exceeding the 30-day average by 35%. This validates the strength of the bullish move. However, a decoupling between volume and price (e.g., volume declining while the price rises) could indicate waning momentum. The volume profile also shows a "spike" on 2025-09-09 (49.42% gain), which may mark a key psychological threshold for future retests.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Calculating RSI over the 14-day period, the average gain (5.82%) outweighs the average loss (2.17%), yielding an RSI of ~73.1. This overbought reading suggests a potential short-term pullback, though it does not guarantee an immediate reversal. Traders should watch for a drop below 60 to confirm weakening momentum. A divergence between RSI and price (e.g., RSI declining while the price rises) would strengthen the case for a correction.

Fibonacci Retracement

Applying Fibonacci levels from the 2024-10-21 low (14.09) to the 2025-09-09 high (98.68), key retracement levels at 61.8% (~62.30) and 38.2% (~45.60) appear to have acted as dynamic support/resistance. The current price (106.60) is above the 23.6% retracement level (~75.80), suggesting a potential continuation of the upward trend. A break below 62.30 could trigger a retest of the 38.2% level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A strategy triggered by MACD and KDJ golden crosses from 2022 to the present yielded a -0.10% return, underperforming the benchmark’s 19.37%. This suggests that while the indicators occasionally aligned with bullish signals, market conditions (e.g., high volatility, false breakouts) may have eroded returns. The maximum drawdown of 0.00% implies minimal downside risk during the strategy’s execution, but the negative Sharpe ratio (-0.90) highlights poor risk-adjusted returns. Integrating Fibonacci levels and volume-confirmed breakouts into the strategy could improve efficacy by filtering out false signals.