Nebius Group (NBIS) Surges 7.16% on Intraday Rally Amid Microsoft Partnership Uncertainty

Summary
• Nebius Group (NBIS) trades at $105.68, up 7.16% intraday, with a 52-week high of $141.10 and low of $17.385
• Microsoft’s $17.4B partnership fuels growth but valuation concerns persist amid a $91.5M Q2 net loss
• Options volatility spikes, with 20 contracts trading above 90% implied volatility as short-term bearish and long-term bullish trends clash

Nebius Group’s stock has surged 7.16% intraday to $105.68, driven by renewed speculation around its Microsoft partnership and AI infrastructure expansion. Despite a 7.8% pullback earlier this week, the stock remains 285% above its year-to-date lows, reflecting both optimism over its $17.4B contract and skepticism about its 123x P/E ratio. With a 3.83% turnover rate and a dynamic P/E of 28.18, the stock is at a critical juncture between short-term volatility and long-term growth potential.

Microsoft Partnership and Profitability Concerns Drive Volatility
Nebius’s intraday rally stems from renewed investor interest in its Microsoft partnership, which remains a cornerstone of its growth narrative despite a $91.5M net loss in Q2 2025. The $17.4B contract, set to deliver GPU capacity from its New Jersey data center through 2031, has provided long-term revenue visibility but has not yet translated into profitability. Analysts highlight that while the deal validates Nebius’s infrastructure capabilities, its current valuation—trading at 28x price-to-sales and 123x P/E—reflects aggressive expectations for AI demand. Recent media scrutiny over unprofitable AI firms has also weighed on sentiment, with Nebius frequently cited as a speculative risk. The stock’s 7.16% intraday gain suggests a short-term rebound amid mixed fundamentals.

Data Processing Sector Struggles as IBM Slides 3.45%
The Data Processing & Outsourced Services sector, led by IBM, has underperformed Nebius’s rally. IBM’s stock fell 3.45% intraday, reflecting broader market skepticism toward legacy tech firms amid AI-driven disruption. Nebius’s focus on AI infrastructure positions it as a disruptor, but its lack of profitability contrasts with IBM’s established revenue streams. While Nebius’s 7.16% gain highlights speculative momentum, the sector’s -3.45% move underscores caution among investors seeking more stable earnings profiles.

Options Volatility and Technicals Signal High-Risk, High-Reward Setup
• 200-day MA: $52.12 (far below); RSI: 31.36 (oversold); MACD: 3.81 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $139.30, Middle $118.61, Lower $97.92 (current price near upper band)
• Support/Resistance: 30D $107.70–$108.62, 200D $50.06–$52.37

Nebius’s technicals suggest a volatile breakout scenario. The RSI at 31.36 indicates oversold conditions, while the MACD histogram (-4.67) hints at short-term bearish momentum. However, the stock’s proximity to its 52-week high ($141.10) and the Bollinger Upper Band ($139.30) suggest potential for a rebound. Two options stand out for aggressive traders:

• NBIS20251031C105 (Call, $105 strike, Oct 31 expiry):
- IV: 94.33% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.5201 (moderate directional sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.5561 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0257 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $223,836 (liquid)
- LVR: 17.42% (moderate leverage)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($110.97): $5.97/share
- This call benefits from a sharp move above $105, leveraging high gamma and IV to amplify gains in a bullish breakout.

• NBIS20251031P105 (Put, $105 strike, Oct 31 expiry):
- IV: 92.23% (high volatility)
- Delta: -0.4808 (moderate bearish exposure)
- Theta: -0.0860 (slow time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0263 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $76,596 (liquid)
- LVR: 16.78% (moderate leverage)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($110.97): $5.97/share
- This put offers downside protection if the rally falters, with high gamma to capitalize on volatility swings. Aggressive bulls may consider NBIS20251031C105 into a break above $107.70 support, while cautious bears may hedge with NBIS20251031P105.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
Here is the event-study back-test of NBIS.O after every ≥ 7 % single-day surge since 2022.Key observations (not duplicated in the module):• Only eight qualifying surges occurred in nearly four years, so statistical power is limited. • Short-term (1-10 trading days) excess returns are mixed and statistically insignificant. • Medium-term momentum emerges: by day 30 the average cumulative return is +25.7 % versus the benchmark’s +9 %, with a 83 % win-rate—but still not statistically significant at conventional levels (given the small sample). • Risk: several events reversed quickly; a simple fixed 10 % stop could have protected capital in half of the losing cases.Assumptions you should note:1. “Intraday surge” was proxied with close-to-close gains ≥ 7 % because true intraday high/low data were unavailable in the current data source.2. The engine’s default 30-day holding window was retained; let me know if you’d like a different horizon or stop-loss/take-profit overlays.Feel free to review the interactive panel above and tell me if you’d like deeper drill-downs (e.g., using intraday bars, alternative thresholds, or additional risk controls).

Breakout or Breakdown? Watch $107.70 and IBM’s Sector Leadership
Nebius’s 7.16% intraday rally hinges on its ability to sustain momentum above $107.70, a critical 30-day support level. A close above $108.62 could trigger a retest of its 52-week high at $141.10, but the stock’s 123x P/E and unprofitable status remain risks. Investors should monitor IBM’s -3.45% move as a sector barometer; if the broader Data Processing sector stabilizes, Nebius’s Microsoft-driven narrative could gain traction. For now, the NBIS20251031C105 call and NBIS20251031P105 put offer high-gamma exposure to a volatile setup. Watch for a $107.70 breakout or a breakdown below $97.92 (Bollinger Lower Band) to dictate next steps.