Nebius Group (NBIS) Surges 7.1% on $3B Meta Deal and AI Infrastructure Momentum – Is This the Start of a Bullish Reversal?

Summary
• Nebius Group (NBIS) surges 7.1% intraday to $101.82, driven by a $3 billion Meta AI infrastructure contract and Q3 revenue growth of 355% to $146.1M.
• The stock trades near its 52-week low of $18.31 but faces a 54.73x dynamic P/E ratio, signaling aggressive growth expectations.
• Options activity intensifies, with 1224 contracts traded for the $94 put expiring Nov 28 and 635,808 turnover for the $100 call.

Nebius Group’s 7.1% intraday rally reflects a mix of optimism over its $3B Meta deal and bearish technical indicators. The stock’s 355% Q3 revenue surge contrasts with a $100.4M loss, while options data highlights aggressive short-term positioning. Traders are now weighing whether this bounce is a reversal or a temporary rebound.

Meta Contract and Capacity Constraints Drive Volatility
Nebius Group’s 7.1% intraday surge stems from a $3 billion, five-year AI infrastructure deal with Meta, announced alongside Q3 results. While revenue jumped 355% to $146.1 million, the company missed estimates and reported a $100.4 million loss. The Meta contract, however, validates Nebius’s long-term growth thesis, with CEO Arkady Volozh emphasizing capacity expansion as the key bottleneck. The stock’s sharp move follows a $17.4 billion Microsoft deal in September, but operational hurdles—including $955.5 million in Q3 capital expenditures—highlight the risks of scaling at this pace.

IT Services Sector Gains Momentum as Microsoft (MSFT) Rises 1.45%
The IT Services sector, led by Microsoft’s 1.45% intraday gain, reflects broader optimism in AI infrastructure. Nebius’s 7.1% rally outpaces sector peers, driven by its hyperscaler contracts and full-stack AI cloud strategy. While Microsoft’s growth remains steady, Nebius’s aggressive capital expenditures and high leverage (54.73x P/E) position it as a high-risk, high-reward play within the sector.

Options and Technicals: Aggressive Bulls Target $101.82 Breakout
• RSI: 32.26 (oversold)
• MACD: -6.26 (bearish), Signal Line: -3.35
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $101.82 (vs. lower band $79.24, upper $137.74)
• 200D MA: $59.54 (far below current price)

Nebius’s technicals suggest a potential reversal from oversold RSI levels, but the bearish MACD and wide Bollinger Bands indicate high volatility. The stock’s 7.1% rally has pushed it closer to the upper band, but a sustained break above $102.69 (intraday high) could trigger a test of the $137.74 upper band. For options, focus on high-leverage contracts with moderate delta and strong liquidity:

Top Option 1: NBIS20251128C101
• Type: Call
• Strike: $101
• Expiration: Nov 28
• IV: 93.72% (high)
• Leverage: 18.20%
• Delta: 0.5076 (moderate)
• Theta: -0.5343 (high decay)
• Gamma: 0.0271 (sensitive to price swings)
• Turnover: $217,209
• Payoff (5% upside): $5.09 per share
This contract offers aggressive upside if Nebius breaks $101, with high gamma amplifying gains from price swings. The 93.72% IV suggests strong volatility expectations.

Top Option 2: NBIS20251128C102
• Type: Call
• Strike: $102
• Expiration: Nov 28
• IV: 97.48% (very high)
• Leverage: 18.88%
• Delta: 0.4839 (moderate)
• Theta: -0.5372 (high decay)
• Gamma: 0.0260 (moderate sensitivity)
• Turnover: $166,720
• Payoff (5% upside): $5.09 per share
This contract mirrors the $101 call but with slightly higher IV and turnover, making it ideal for a breakout above $102.69. Aggressive bulls may consider a ladder strategy into Nov 28 expiration.

Hook: If $102.69 holds, NBIS20251128C102 offers explosive upside. Watch for a break above the upper Bollinger Band ($137.74) to confirm a bullish reversal.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
Here is the event-study back-test you requested. Key take-aways:• Sample size: 41 occurrences where NBIS.O closed ≥ 7 % above the prior day’s close between 2022-01-01 and 2025-11-19. • Horizon: 30 trading days after each surge, evaluated on close prices. • Performance: Median cumulative return after 30 days ≈ 20.5 %, versus ≈ 9.9 % for a same-period buy-and-hold benchmark. • However, t-tests on the excess returns did not reach conventional significance; the edge is positive but statistically weak. • Win-rate improves as the holding window lengthens (≈ 59 % on day 1, ≈ 73 % by day 30). Risk-adjusted dispersion is wide; individual events vary considerably.Assumptions auto-filled for you:1. Price series: daily close (intraday minute data not required for “≥ 7 % surge” definition). 2. Event definition: (TodayClose – PrevClose) / PrevClose ≥ 0.07. 3. Analysis window: fixed 30 trading days post-event, a common standard when the user does not specify. You can explore the full interactive report below.

Nebius at a Crossroads: Breakout or Correction? Act Now
Nebius Group’s 7.1% rally hinges on its ability to sustain momentum above $102.69 and execute on its $7–9 billion 2026 revenue target. The stock’s oversold RSI and bearish MACD suggest a volatile near-term path, but the $3B Meta deal and $17.4B Microsoft contract provide long-term catalysts. Traders should monitor the $101.82 level for a breakout or breakdown, with options like NBIS20251128C101 and C102 offering high-leverage plays. Meanwhile, Microsoft’s 1.45% gain in the IT Services sector underscores the broader AI infrastructure trend. Act now: Buy NBIS20251128C101 if $101.82 holds, or short the $94 put (NBIS20251128P94) if the rally falters.