Nebius Group (NBIS) Surges 6.7% on AI Expansion Hopes Amid Capacity Constraints

Summary
• Nebius Group (NBIS) gaps up 4.34% intraday to $74.945, trading near 52-week high of $75.96
• Q2 revenue surges 625% YoY to $105.1M, driven by AI cloud infrastructure demand
• Zacks downgrades NBIS to Sell (4) amid peak GPU capacity concerns
• Analysts upgrade price targets, citing $1.1B ARR guidance and Blackwell GPU expansion

Nebius Group’s stock is trading at a fever pitch as investors weigh explosive AI infrastructure growth against capacity constraints and valuation risks. The stock’s 4.34% surge to $74.945—just 3.5% below its 52-week high—reflects optimism around $1.1B ARR targets and Blackwell GPU expansion, while short-term technical indicators and sector comparisons hint at a volatile near-term path.

AI Infrastructure Growth and Capacity Constraints Fuel Volatility
Nebius Group’s 4.34% intraday surge stems from a perfect storm of bullish catalysts: 625% YoY Q2 revenue growth driven by AI cloud infrastructure, $1.1B ARR guidance, and Blackwell GPU expansion. However, the Zacks downgrade to Sell (4) and reports of 'peak GPU capacity' create a tug-of-war in sentiment. The stock’s sharp move from $72.00 to $75.92 reflects optimism around $1.1B ARR targets and 220 MW data center expansion, but the 4.59% turnover rate and 81.5 RSI suggest overbought conditions. Analysts are split between viewing this as a momentum play on AI demand or a warning sign of stretched valuations.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on NBIS Volatility
• RSI: 81.49 (overbought)
• MACD: 4.23 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $43.45–$66.73 (price at 108% of upper band)
• 200-day MA: $34.22 (far below current price)

Technical indicators scream short-term overbought conditions, but NBIS’s 4.34% surge and 625% YoY revenue growth justify aggressive options plays. Two top contracts stand out:

• NBIS20250815C75 (Call, $75 strike, 8/15 expiry):
- IV: 90.31% (high volatility)
- Leverage: 38.40% (strong gearing)
- Delta: 0.405 (moderate directional bias)
- Theta: -0.6297 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0562 (price-sensitive)
- Turnover: $2.54M (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($77.00): $1.80/share (36% return on $5.00 premium). This call offers high leverage for a continuation of the AI-driven rally, with theta decay amplifying gains if the move accelerates before expiry.

• NBIS20250815P70 (Put, $70 strike, 8/15 expiry):
- IV: 93.34% (high volatility)
- Leverage: 47.38% (aggressive downside protection)
- Delta: -0.3165 (moderate bearish bias)
- Theta: -0.0543 (slow decay)
- Gamma: 0.0499 (price-sensitive)
- Turnover: $468K (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($77.00): $7.00/share (140% return on $5.00 premium). This put offers asymmetric upside if the Zacks downgrade triggers a pullback, with high leverage to capitalize on a 7% drop from current levels.

Action: Aggressive bulls should buy NBIS20250815C75 into the $75.00–$76.00 range. Conservative traders should hedge with NBIS20250815P70 to protect against a Zacks-driven selloff. Both contracts benefit from high gamma and IV, making them ideal for a volatile AI sector.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
The backtest of NBIS's performance after a 7% intraday increase shows favorable results, with win rates and returns indicating positive short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 59.14%, the 10-Day win rate is 63.44%, and the 30-Day win rate is 68.82%, suggesting that NBIS tends to maintain momentum following a significant intraday surge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 34.66% over 30 days, with a maximum return day at 58, further highlighting the stock's potential for substantial gains in the days following a strong intraday performance.

Act Now: NBIS at Pivotal Juncture
Nebius Group stands at a crossroads: explosive AI infrastructure growth versus capacity constraints and valuation risks. The 4.34% surge to $74.945 reflects optimism around $1.1B ARR targets and Blackwell GPU expansion, but the 81.5 RSI and Zacks downgrade signal caution. Investors should watch the $75.00–$76.00 level as a critical inflection point—break above for a potential $77.00–$78.00 target, or a pullback to $70.00 could trigger the put’s 140% payoff. Meanwhile, sector leader Microsoft (MSFT) is up 1.53%, reinforcing AI infrastructure momentum. Act now: Buy NBIS20250815C75 for upside or hedge with NBIS20250815P70 to navigate this pivotal juncture.