Nebius Group Surges 7% Amid Volatile Intraday Action: What's Fueling the Rally?

Summary
• Nebius Group (NBIS) rockets 6.99% to $89.555, hitting a 2026 intraday high of $90.76
• Turnover surges to 7.26 million shares, outpacing its 3.54% turnover rate benchmark
• Microsoft (MSFT), sector leader, plummets 2.39% amid broader tech sector jitters

Today’s market action for Nebius Group has ignited a sharp intraday rally, with the stock climbing nearly 7% from its $86.90 open. While the Data Processing & Outsourced Services sector remains under pressure, NBIS’s breakout above key moving averages and Bollinger Bands suggests a potential short-term reversal. Traders are now scrutinizing technical indicators and options activity for clues on sustainability.

Technical Reversal Amid Oversold Conditions
Nebius Group’s 6.99% intraday surge emerges as a classic technical rebound from oversold territory. The RSI at 39.92 and MACD histogram flipping positive from -3.24 to +0.26 signal a short-term bottoming process. Price action has pierced the 30D MA (90.48) and is now testing the upper Bollinger Band (104.93). While no company-specific news triggered the move, the 52W low of $18.31 remains a distant anchor, suggesting traders are capitalizing on a multi-year range-bound setup.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility and Gamma
• 200D MA: $67.34 (far below) | 30D MA: $90.48 (just breached) | RSI: 39.92 (oversold)
• Bollinger Bands: $74.48 (lower) to $104.93 (upper) | MACD: -3.24 (signal -3.50) | Histogram: +0.26 (positive divergence)

Key levels to monitor include the 30D MA at $90.48 and the 200D MA at $67.34. With RSI in oversold territory and MACD showing positive divergence, a continuation above $90.76 (intraday high) could trigger a test of the upper Bollinger Band. The options chain reveals two compelling plays:

• NBIS20260109P84 (Put):
- Strike: $84 | Expiry: 2026-01-09 | IV: 75.22% (high volatility)
- LVR: 56.15% (high leverage) | Delta: -0.2524 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0729 (rapid time decay) | Gamma: 0.0319 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $39,093 (liquid)
- Why it stands out: High gamma and leverage ratio position this put for significant payoff if the rally stalls. Projected 5% upside (to $93.98) yields a max payoff of $9.98 per contract.

• NBIS20260109P83 (Put):
- Strike: $83 | Expiry: 2026-01-09 | IV: 74.29% (moderate volatility)
- LVR: 66.54% (high leverage) | Delta: -0.2169 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0728 (rapid time decay) | Gamma: 0.0297 (strong sensitivity)
- Turnover: $53,537 (liquid)
- Why it stands out: Balances leverage and liquidity, ideal for a controlled short-term bearish play. 5% upside scenario yields $10.98 per contract.

Aggressive bulls may consider NBIS20260109C82 (Call) into a break above $90.76, leveraging its 9.98% leverage ratio and 99.12% price change ratio.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
The backtest of NBIS's performance following a 7% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 54.25%, the 10-Day win rate is 57.52%, and the 30-Day win rate is 62.75%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 35.62%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that NBIS can deliver significant gains even after the initial 7% surge.

Act Now: Target $90.76 Breakout or Reversal
The 6.99% rally in Nebius Group hinges on its ability to sustain above $90.76 and close above the 30D MA at $90.48. With RSI in oversold territory and MACD divergence, a continuation above $90.76 could trigger a test of the upper Bollinger Band at $104.93. However, Microsoft’s 2.39% decline as sector leader signals broader tech caution. Traders should prioritize the NBIS20260109P84 put for a controlled short-side play or target the $90.76 breakout with a call option. Watch for $90.76 breakout or reversal below $86.01 intraday low.