Nebius Group (NBIS) Surges 5.8% on AI Infrastructure Breakthrough—What’s Fueling the Rally?

Summary
• Nebius Group (NBIS) surges 5.8% intraday to $94.0693, hitting a fresh 52-week high of $95.63
• Landmark $17.4B AI infrastructure deal with Microsoft validates full-stack platform, triggering analyst upgrades
• $1B convertible note offering and 625% YoY Q2 sales growth underscore hypergrowth narrative

Today’s explosive move in Nebius Group (NBIS) reflects a perfect storm of strategic AI infrastructure wins, bullish analyst sentiment, and capital-raising momentum. The stock’s intraday high of $95.63 and low of $90.76 highlight volatile but directional optimism, driven by Microsoft’s multi-year GPU cloud contract and a $1B financing boost. With 7.16M shares traded, investors are betting on Nebius’s ability to scale its AI-native cloud platform amid surging demand.

Microsoft AI Pact Ignites Investor Optimism
Nebius Group’s 5.8% surge is directly tied to its $17.4B AI infrastructure agreement with Microsoft, which secures dedicated GPU capacity through 2031. This deal validates Nebius’s full-stack AI platform as a critical player in the hyperscaler ecosystem, with analysts highlighting its 625% YoY Q2 sales growth and 393% annual rally. Additionally, a $1B convertible note offering—split into $500M 2029 and 2031 tranches—signals confidence in capital deployment for data-center expansion. Analyst upgrades, including BWS Financial’s $130 price target and DA Davidson’s Buy rating, further amplify conviction in Nebius’s mid-single-digit billion revenue target by 2026.

IT Services Sector Rally as Microsoft Leads Charge
The IT Services sector, led by Microsoft (MSFT) with a 2.28% intraday gain, is surging on AI infrastructure demand. Nebius’s 5.8% move outpaces Microsoft’s 2.28% rise, reflecting its pure-play AI cloud positioning. While Microsoft’s Azure faces outages, Nebius’s full-stack GPU clusters and proprietary cloud architecture position it as a differentiated growth story. The sector’s broader momentum, fueled by AI-driven CapEx, underscores Nebius’s potential to outperform as hyperscalers prioritize dedicated capacity.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls and Strategic Puts for NBIS
• RSI: 30.51 (oversold), MACD: -6.98 (bearish divergence), 200D MA: $60.55 (far below)
• Bollinger Bands: $71.14–$133.64 (wide range), 30D Support: $83.26–$84.21
• 200D Support: $50.06–$52.37 (deep undervaluation zone)

Technical indicators suggest a short-term bullish bias, with RSI at oversold levels and the stock trading near 30D support. The 200D MA ($60.55) remains a critical long-term floor. For aggressive bulls, NBIS20251205C94 (call, strike $94, exp 12/5) offers 16.84% leverage and 55.37% price change potential. For downside protection, NBIS20251205P94 (put, strike $94, exp 12/5) provides 16.24% leverage with 23.65% price change cushion. Both contracts exhibit high liquidity (turnover $203K and $186K) and favorable Greeks: the call has a 0.499 delta and 0.026 gamma, while the put has a -0.514 delta and 0.032 gamma. Under a 5% upside scenario (target $98.77), the call’s payoff would be $4.77 per contract, while the put’s intrinsic value would erode. Aggressive bulls may consider NBIS20251205C94 into a bounce above $94, while hedgers should monitor the 200D MA as a liquidity trap.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
Here is the event-driven back-test you requested. The visual report is embedded below—please scroll to view the interactive charts and tables.Key take-aways:• 13 qualifying surge events (≥ 6 % close-to-close jump) were identified between 5 Jan 2022 and 26 Nov 2025. • Average excess return versus the benchmark remains modest for the first two weeks, but strengthens thereafter; by Day 18 the cumulative event return turns significantly positive (~ +21.7 % vs +5.2 % benchmark). • Win-rate improves from ~46 % on Day 1 to > 90 % by Day 24, before plateauing. • No material negative drift is observed; pull-backs after the surge have been shallow and short-lived.Parameter notes (auto-selected):1. Price series: daily closing prices (intraday minute data was unavailable; close-to-close change used as a proxy for “intraday surge”). 2. Detection rule: event date = first session where closing price rises ≥ 6 % vs previous close. 3. Back-test window: 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-26 (covers “2022 to now”). 4. Analysis horizon: 30 trading days post-event (default setting). Feel free to explore the interactive module for granular statistics or let me know if you’d like to adjust thresholds, horizons, or add risk controls.

Bullish Momentum Unlikely to Subside—Act Now on AI Infrastructure Play
Nebius Group’s rally is underpinned by structural AI demand, strategic hyperscaler partnerships, and disciplined capital deployment. With Microsoft (MSFT) up 2.28% and the sector rallying on AI CapEx, Nebius’s 5.8% move is likely to persist as execution on the Microsoft deal and Q3 earnings (Sept 16) unfold. Investors should prioritize NBIS20251205C94 for leveraged exposure or NBIS20251205P94 for downside hedging. Watch for a breakout above $95.63 or a breakdown below $90.76 to confirm the trend’s sustainability.