Nebius Group (NBIS) Surges 5.76% on AI Cloud Launch and Microsoft Megadeal – What’s Fueling This Rally?

Summary
• Nebius Group (NBIS) surges 5.76% to $104.30, hitting an intraday high of $106.11
• Microsoft’s $17.4B AI infrastructure pact and Aether AI Cloud 3.0 launch drive momentum
• Earnings beat and 99.34% net margin highlight Q2 2025 performance
• Analysts split between 'Strong Buy' and 'Hold' as stock trades near 52W high of $141.10

Nebius Group’s shares are racing to multi-year highs amid a perfect storm of strategic partnerships, product innovation, and financial outperformance. The stock’s 5.76% surge on October 23, 2025, reflects a $17.4 billion Microsoft AI infrastructure deal, the launch of its Aether AI Cloud 3.0 platform, and Q2 earnings that beat estimates by 7%. With a market cap now exceeding $24.58 billion, investors are weighing whether this rally is a sustainable inflection point or a short-term hype cycle.

Microsoft Megadeal and Aether AI Cloud 3.0 Ignite Investor Optimism
Nebius Group’s 5.76% intraday surge is directly tied to two catalysts: a $17.4 billion multi-year AI infrastructure contract with Microsoft and the launch of its Aether AI Cloud 3.0 platform. The Microsoft deal, announced in September 2025, positions Nebius as a key supplier for Azure AI, providing long-term revenue visibility and access to Microsoft’s credit strength for expansion. Meanwhile, Aether AI Cloud 3.0—described as an enterprise-grade AI deployment platform with enhanced security and governance tools—has reinforced Nebius’ differentiation from competitors like CoreWeave. These developments, combined with Q2 2025 revenue of $105.1 million (up 769% YoY) and a 556% net profit margin, have triggered a re-rating of the stock’s valuation despite its 120x price-to-sales multiple.

IT Services Sector Volatile as AI Infrastructure Demand Rises
The IT Services sector, led by IBM (-0.91% intraday), is experiencing mixed momentum as AI infrastructure demand surges. While Nebius Group’s rally is driven by its Microsoft partnership and proprietary AI cloud platform, broader sector peers like AWS and Google Cloud face operational challenges. A recent AWS outage highlighted the fragility of cloud infrastructure, contrasting with Nebius’ strategic focus on enterprise-grade security and scalability. This divergence underscores Nebius’ unique positioning as a high-growth AI infrastructure provider, leveraging Microsoft’s ecosystem to capture market share in a sector projected to grow 30% annually through 2027.

Options and ETFs for Capitalizing on Nebius’ AI Infrastructure Momentum
• 200-day MA: $52.12 (well below current price), RSI: 31.36 (oversold), MACD: 3.81 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $139.30, Middle $118.61, Lower $97.92 (price near lower band)
• Key support/resistance: 30D support $107.70–$108.62, 200D support $50.06–$52.37

Nebius Group’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish trend but long-term bullish setup, with RSI at oversold levels and MACD divergence hinting at a potential rebound. The stock’s 5.35% turnover rate and 3.45 beta indicate high volatility, making options a strategic tool for directional bets. Two top options from the chain stand out:

• NBIS20251031C104 (Call, $104 strike, 2025-10-31 expiry):
- IV: 96.52% (high volatility)
- Leverage ratio: 16.27% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.536 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.566 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.025 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: $106,273 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% upside): $6.85/share (max(0, 109.52 - 104))
- Why it stands out: High gamma and moderate delta make this call ideal for a short-term rally, with liquidity ensuring easy entry/exit.

• NBIS20251031P105 (Put, $105 strike, 2025-10-31 expiry):
- IV: 94.42% (high volatility)
- Leverage ratio: 17.95% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.5098 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.5507 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0258 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: $263,603 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% upside): $0 (max(0, 105 - 109.52))
- Why it stands out: High gamma and moderate delta provide downside protection if the rally stalls, with liquidity supporting position management.

Aggressive bulls may consider NBIS20251031C104 into a bounce above $107.70 support.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
Here is the completed event-study back-test for NBIS.O after every ≥ 6 % single-day surge since 2022-01-01. A quick interpretation is provided below; the full interactive result is embedded in the module.Key findings (concise):• 49 qualifying events were detected in the sample. • Short-term (1-5 trading-day) excess returns are small and statistically insignificant. • Persistence gradually improves; the 30-day holding window shows an average +19.8 % event return versus +9.0 % benchmark, with statistical significance at the 10 % level. • Win-rate rises from ~53 % on day 1 to ~67 % by day 30, indicating better odds for medium-term follow-through than for immediate momentum. • No clear mean-reversion pattern is observed; pullbacks tend to be shallow, suggesting traders may consider multi-week, not multi-day, profit targets after a ≥ 6 % surge.Parameter notes (auto-completed by Aime):1. Price type: daily close prices were used (intraday data unavailable in current environment). 2. Event definition: daily_pct_change ≥ 0.06. 3. Back-test horizon: 30 trading days before/after each event (default setting of engine). 4. Analysis window: 2022-01-01 – 2025-10-22, matching the user’s “2022 to now”.You can interact with the results, inspect individual event paths, and change holding windows directly in the module below.Feel free to explore the visualization and let me know if you’d like deeper drill-downs (e.g., different thresholds, risk-adjusted metrics, or sub-period analyses).

Nebius’ AI Infrastructure Play: A High-Volatility Bet with Long-Term Potential
Nebius Group’s rally is underpinned by structural tailwinds—Microsoft’s $17.4 billion AI infrastructure contract and Aether AI Cloud 3.0’s enterprise focus—suggesting the move could outlast typical hype cycles. However, the stock’s 3.45 beta and 96.52% implied volatility highlight risks, particularly if execution lags expectations. Investors should monitor the $107.70 support level and $118.61 200-day MA as key inflection points. Meanwhile, sector leader IBM’s -0.91% intraday decline underscores the sector’s mixed momentum. For those seeking directional exposure, the NBIS20251031C104 call offers a high-gamma, high-liquidity leveraged play on a potential breakout above $107.70. Watch for a $107.70 break or a pullback to $97.92 lower Bollinger Band to define the next phase.