Nebius Group (NBIS) Surges 6.38% on Landmark Microsoft AI Deal – Is This the Start of a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Nebius Group (NBIS) surges 6.38% to $114.68, hitting its 52-week high of $114.85
• Landmark $19.4B Microsoft AI infrastructure deal validates full-stack platform
• DCF analysis suggests intrinsic value of $273.77, 61% above current price
• Intraday volatility sees $100 swing from $104.85 to $114.85

Nebius Group’s stock has erupted on the back of a transformative Microsoft partnership, with investors pricing in long-term AI infrastructure dominance. The $19.4B deal not only secures revenue through 2031 but also positions Nebius as a critical player in the neocloud revolution. With technicals showing extreme bullish momentum and a DCF model implying significant upside, the stock is now at a pivotal inflection point.

Microsoft AI Infrastructure Pact Ignites Investor Optimism
Nebius Group’s 6.38% intraday surge is directly tied to its $19.4B multi-year deal with Microsoft, which will utilize nearly all of Nebius’s New Jersey facility. This agreement validates the company’s full-stack AI platform and positions it as a key supplier for hyperscale cloud computing. Analysts highlight that the deal provides stable revenue through 2031 and opens doors for future partnerships with other hyperscalers. The market is pricing in Nebius’s ability to scale infrastructure rapidly, supported by recent $3.7B in capital raises and a DCF model projecting $6.44B in cash flow by 2035.

IT Services Sector Gains Momentum as AI Demand Surges
The IT Services sector is rallying on AI infrastructure demand, with Nebius Group outperforming peers. While sector leader Nvidia (NVDA) fell 0.80% on profit-taking, Nebius’s 6.38% gain underscores its unique positioning in the neocloud ecosystem. The Microsoft deal aligns with broader trends of cloud providers securing long-term GPU contracts, as seen in recent agreements by Amazon and Google. Analysts note that Nebius’s full-stack approach differentiates it from pure-play chipmakers, offering a more integrated solution for AI workloads.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls and Strategic Puts for NBIS
• RSI: 83.68 (overbought), MACD: 10.15 (bullish), Bollinger Upper: $113.34 (near current price)
• 200-day MA: $42.86 (far below), 30-day MA: $78.54 (support)
• Intraday volatility: 9.78% turnover rate, 6.38% price surge

Technical indicators suggest Nebius is in a short-term overbought phase but remains in a long-term bullish trend. The stock is trading near its Bollinger Upper Band, with RSI at extreme levels, indicating potential for a pullback or continuation. For aggressive bulls, the NBIS20251003C110 call option offers 12.90% leverage with a 65.06% price change potential. This contract has a delta of 0.62, implying moderate sensitivity to price moves, and a high gamma of 0.0223, making it responsive to volatility. A 5% upside scenario (to $120.41) would yield a payoff of $10.41 per contract, or 74.6% return on strike price.

For downside protection, the NBIS20251003P110 put option provides 25.06% leverage with a -37.37% price change risk. Its delta of -0.375 and gamma of 0.0236 offer balanced exposure to volatility. A 5% downside to $109.45 would result in a $0.55 payoff, or 4.8% return.

Aggressive bulls should consider NBIS20251003C110 into a breakout above $115.00, while cautious investors may hedge with NBIS20251003P110 to protect against a pullback.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
Here is the event‐driven back-test you requested. The module below is interactive—click it to explore detailed charts, distribution plots and per-event drill-downs.Key takeaways (30-day horizon):• Number of surge events: 46 • Average cumulative excess return after 30 days: ≈ 10.5 % (stock 16.9 % vs. benchmark 6.4 %) • Win-rate improves from ~54 % on day 1 to ~65 % by day 30. • Statistical significance emerges around day 30, suggesting positive momentum over the following month.Let me know if you’d like alternative holding windows, risk-adjusted metrics, or further drill-downs.

Bullish Momentum Unlikely to Subside – Position for AI Infrastructure Growth
Nebius Group’s surge is underpinned by a transformative Microsoft deal and a DCF model suggesting $273.77 intrinsic value. While technicals show overbought conditions, the stock’s long-term trend remains intact, supported by AI infrastructure demand. Investors should monitor the 52-week high of $114.85 and the 200-day MA at $42.86 as key levels. Sector leader Nvidia’s -0.80% decline highlights the sector’s resilience, with Nebius’s full-stack model offering a unique edge. Aggressive bulls should target NBIS20251003C110 for leveraged exposure, while hedging with NBIS20251003P110 to manage volatility. Watch for a breakout above $115.00 to confirm the next leg higher.