Nebius Group (NBIS) Surges 5.38% on AI Infrastructure Momentum: Is This the Start of a Breakout?

Summary
• Nebius Group (NBIS) rockets 5.38% intraday to $93.66, driven by a $3B Meta AI infrastructure deal and Q3 earnings beat.
• The stock trades within a $90.76–$95.63 range, with $93.66 above its 200-day MA of $60.55.
• Analysts highlight the company’s $1B convertible note issuance and bullish technicals as catalysts.

Today’s 5.38% surge in Nebius Group reflects a confluence of strategic AI infrastructure wins, robust earnings, and capital-raising momentum. The stock’s intraday high of $95.63 and low of $90.76 underscore its volatility amid heightened investor speculation.

Strategic AI Contracts and Earnings Fuel Rally
Nebius Group’s 5.38% intraday surge is anchored by two key catalysts: a $3B multi-year AI infrastructure agreement with Meta and Q3 earnings that exceeded expectations. The Meta deal, announced in pre-market trading, positions Nebius as a critical player in large-scale AI capacity deployment. Meanwhile, Q3 results showed a $0.55/share loss, outperforming analyst forecasts by 10%, signaling improved operational efficiency. These developments, combined with a $1B convertible note issuance to fund expansion, have reignited investor confidence in the company’s ability to scale its AI cloud platform.

Data Processing & Outsourced Services Sector Gains Momentum
The Data Processing & Outsourced Services sector, led by Amazon (AMZN) with a 0.56% intraday gain, has seen renewed interest as AI infrastructure demand surges. Nebius’s 5.38% rally outpaces sector peers, reflecting its unique positioning in AI-native cloud solutions. While AMZN’s modest gain highlights broader sector caution, Nebius’s aggressive capital-raising and strategic partnerships underscore its differentiation in the AI infrastructure race.

Options and Technicals: Capitalizing on Nebius’s Volatility
• RSI: 30.51 (oversold)
• MACD: -6.98 (bearish), Signal Line: -5.56, Histogram: -1.41 (declining bearish momentum)
• 200-day MA: $60.55 (well below current price)
• Bollinger Bands: $71.14–$133.64 (wide range, indicating high volatility)
• ATR: 10.33 (suggests significant price swings)

Nebius’s technicals point to a short-term bullish setup, with RSI at oversold levels and Bollinger Bands signaling extreme volatility. The stock’s 5.38% intraday gain has pushed it above key resistance at $93.26 (30D support) and toward the $95.63 intraday high. Traders should monitor the $93.66 level as a critical support; a break below could trigger a retest of the $90.76 low, while a close above $95.63 may validate a continuation of the rally.

Top Options Picks:
1. NBIS20251205C93 (Call):
• Strike: $93, Expiration: 2025-12-05
• IV: 88.40% (high volatility)
• Delta: 0.57 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.46 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0285 (high sensitivity to price changes)
• Turnover: 137,341 (liquid)
• Leverage Ratio: 15.21% (moderate)
• Payoff (5% upside): $1.83 per contract (max(0, $98.34 - $93))
• Why: High gamma and IV make this call ideal for a short-term rally, with liquidity ensuring easy entry/exit.

2. NBIS20251205P93 (Put):
• Strike: $93, Expiration: 2025-12-05
• IV: 92.03% (very high)
• Delta: -0.43 (moderate bearish exposure)
• Theta: -0.099 (slow decay)
• Gamma: 0.0273 (moderate sensitivity)
• Turnover: 46,592 (liquid)
• Leverage Ratio: 18.86% (high)
• Payoff (5% downside): $1.83 per contract (max(0, $93 - $88.99))
• Why: High IV and leverage ratio offer asymmetric risk/reward for a potential pullback, with gamma ensuring responsiveness to price swings.

Trading Insight: Aggressive bulls may consider NBIS20251205C93 into a break above $95.63, while cautious bears might short NBIS20251205P93 if $93.66 fails to hold.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
To run an event-based back-test I first need to pin down exactly what you regard as a “5 % intraday surge.” In practice this could mean several slightly different things:1. Close-to-close: today’s close ≥ yesterday’s close × 1.05 2. Open-to-high: today’s intraday high ≥ today’s open × 1.05 3. Close-to-high: today’s intraday high ≥ yesterday’s close × 1.05 Please let me know which definition you want me to use (or provide an alternative), and I’ll complete the event extraction and run the back-test for the full period 2022-01-01 through today.

Nebius at a Pivotal Crossroads: AI Momentum or Overextension?
Nebius Group’s 5.38% rally hinges on its ability to sustain AI infrastructure momentum amid high volatility. Traders should watch the $93.66 support level and $95.63 resistance for directional clues. A break above $95.63 could validate a continuation of the bullish trend, while a close below $93.66 may trigger a retest of the $90.76 low. Meanwhile, Amazon (AMZN)’s 0.56% gain in the Data Processing sector highlights broader market caution, underscoring the need for disciplined risk management. Act now: Position in NBIS20251205C93 for a potential breakout or NBIS20251205P93 to hedge against a pullback.