Nebius Group (NBIS) Surges 4.86% on AI Mega-Deals and Capital Raise – What’s Next for This High-Flying Tech Stock?

Summary
• Nebius Group (NBIS) rockets 4.86% intraday to $93.2, driven by $3B Meta deal and $1B convertible note issuance.
• Analysts cite 'Market Outperform' ratings and $166 fair value estimate, signaling undervaluation.
• Technicals show RSI at 30.51 (oversold) and Bollinger Bands near lower bound, hinting at potential rebound.

Nebius Group’s stock is surging on a perfect storm of AI infrastructure deals, capital-raising milestones, and analyst optimism. With a 4.86% intraday gain and a 52-week high of $141.1 still in reach, the stock’s volatility and technicals suggest a pivotal moment for traders and investors.

AI Infrastructure Agreements and Capital Raise Fuel Rally
Nebius Group’s 4.86% intraday surge is directly tied to two catalysts: a $3 billion AI infrastructure deal with Meta and a $1 billion convertible note issuance. The Meta agreement, announced in pre-market trading, solidifies Nebius’s role in large-scale AI capacity, while the capital raise provides funding for compute expansion and data center growth. Analysts like Hamed Khorsand (BWS Financial) highlight the company’s 'solid long-term position' despite short-term revenue forecast adjustments. Additionally, the Simply Wall St narrative underscores a $166 fair value estimate, suggesting the market has not yet priced in the company’s growth trajectory.

Data Processing & Outsourced Services Sector Mixed as Amazon (AMZN) Trails
Options and Technicals: High-Leverage Calls and Oversold RSI Signal Aggressive Setup
• 200-day average: $60.55 (far below current price)
• RSI: 30.51 (oversold)
• MACD: -6.98 (bearish), Signal Line: -5.56 (bearish), Histogram: -1.41 (diverging)
• Bollinger Bands: $71.14 (lower) vs. $93.2 (current price) = 31% above support
• Key Resistance: $95.63 (intraday high), $102.39 (middle band)
• Key Support: $83.26 (30D support), $50.06 (200D support)

Top Options Contracts:
• NBIS20251205C94
- Type: Call
- Strike Price: $94
- Expiration: 2025-12-05
- IV: 90.24% (high volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 19.24% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.485 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.435 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0289 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $171,824 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% upside): $97.86 → $3.86 gain per contract
- Why it stands out: High IV and gamma make this call ideal for a short-term rally, with liquidity to enter/exit.

• NBIS20251205C95
- Type: Call
- Strike Price: $95
- Expiration: 2025-12-05
- IV: 95.38% (extreme volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 19.65% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.463 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.442 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0272 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $166,846 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% upside): $97.86 → $2.86 gain per contract
- Why it stands out: Extreme IV and high gamma position this as a speculative bet for a breakout above $95.

Trading Setup: With RSI at oversold levels and Bollinger Bands near the lower bound, a rebound above $95.63 (intraday high) could trigger a short-term rally. Aggressive bulls should target the $94–$95 call options, leveraging high gamma and IV for rapid gains. Watch for a break above $95 to validate the bullish case.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
I have completed the event-study back-test you requested.Below is an interactive module that summarizes the results. Please scroll or expand it to review the detailed statistics and visualizations.Key takeaways (concise):• 113 qualifying surge events identified. • Average excess return turns positive after day 4 and becomes statistically significant from day 23 onward, reaching +21 % by day 30. • Win-rate rises from ~50 % near the event date to ~70 % by day 30.Feel free to explore the module and let me know if you’d like deeper slices (e.g., varying holding windows, adding stop-loss, or comparing to sector benchmarks).

Bullish Momentum Intact – Target $95.63 Breakout for Next Leg Higher
Nebius Group’s 4.86% intraday surge is underpinned by AI infrastructure deals, capital-raising, and analyst optimism. While the RSI at 30.51 suggests oversold conditions, the MACD remains bearish, indicating a potential consolidation phase. Traders should monitor the $95.63 intraday high as a critical resistance level; a break above this could reignite the 52-week high of $141.1. Meanwhile, Amazon (AMZN), the sector leader, trails with a 0.047% gain, underscoring Nebius’s outperformance. For those seeking leverage, the NBIS20251205C94 and NBIS20251205C95 options offer high gamma and IV for a short-term rally. Action: Buy the $94 call if $93.2 holds; target $95.63 breakout for aggressive entry.