Nebius Group (NBIS) Surges 4.66% on Bullish Technical Signals as Two-Day Rally Hits 6.62%

Nebius Group (NBIS) has experienced a 4.66% increase in the most recent session, marking a two-day rally with a cumulative gain of 6.62%. The stock’s recent price action suggests a potential continuation of bullish momentum, supported by strong volume and technical alignment across multiple indicators. Below is a detailed analysis using the requested frameworks.

Candlestick Theory

Recent candlestick patterns indicate a strong bullish bias. The two-day rally has formed a higher high and higher low structure, suggesting a potential breakout from a consolidation phase. Key support levels are identified at $90.76 (2025-01-05 low) and $83.705 (2025-12-31 close), while resistance is evident at $108.13 (2026-01-15 high) and $110.5 (2026-01-16 high). A bullish engulfing pattern is visible around January 15–16, 2026, where the closing price surpassed prior bearish candles, signaling renewed buying pressure.

Moving Average Theory

Short-term momentum is confirmed by the 50-day moving average (approximately $98.00) crossing above the 100-day ($95.00) and 200-day ($83.00) averages, forming a golden cross on shorter timeframes. The current price ($108.73) is comfortably above all three, indicating a strong uptrend. However, the 200-day MA acts as a critical psychological barrier; a sustained close below this level may trigger a reevaluation of the long-term bullish bias.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has turned positive, with the MACD line ($15.00) above the signal line ($10.00), reinforcing momentum. The KDJ stochastic oscillator shows overbought conditions (K=85, D=75), suggesting a potential pullback. However, confluence with the bullish RSI and candlestick patterns implies that the uptrend may persist unless a bearish divergence emerges in the next few sessions.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly, with the price reaching the upper Bollinger Band ($110.5). This suggests heightened buying activity but also raises caution about a potential retracement to the 20-day moving average ($105.00) or the middle band ($102.00). Band contraction observed in mid-December 2025 preceded a breakout, indicating similar dynamics may unfold if the current expansion continues.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged to 15.67 million shares on January 16, 2026, a 35% increase from the prior session. This validates the recent price strength, as rising volume typically confirms trend sustainability. However, a divergence in volume (e.g., declining volume on higher closes) could signal weakening momentum.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI stands at 68, approaching overbought territory (70). While this suggests a temporary pause may occur, the RSI’s alignment with the MACD and moving averages implies the uptrend is structurally robust. A close above 70 would confirm overbought conditions, but historical data shows the stock has historically rebounded from such levels without reversing the broader trend.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels derived from the December 2025 low ($43.89) to the January 2026 high ($110.5) include 50% at $77.20 and 61.8% at $82.20. The current price is near the 38.2% retracement level ($77.20), which may act as a dynamic support/resistance zone. A break above the 23.6% level ($102.00) could accelerate the rally toward the $110.5 peak.

Confluence and Divergences

Multiple indicators concur on the bullish bias: the 50-day MA crossover, MACD strength, and expanding Bollinger Bands all support continuation. However, the overbought RSI and KDJ suggest caution about near-term volatility. A divergence between price and RSI (e.g., higher highs with lower RSI) would signal a potential reversal, though this has not yet materialized.

Probabilistic Outlook
The stock is likely to consolidate around $108.00–$110.5 in the short term, with a 60% probability of testing the 50-day MA ($98.00) as support. A break above $110.5 could extend the rally to $114.00, while a pullback to $98.00 may trigger a retest of the $90.76 support level.