Nebius Group (NBIS) Surges 4.5% on AI Infrastructure Breakthrough—What’s Fueling the Momentum?

Summary
• Nebius Group (NBIS) surges 4.5% intraday to $135.45, hitting a fresh 52-week high of $138.53.
• A landmark $17.4B AI infrastructure deal with Microsoft validates Nebius’s full-stack GPU platform, securing long-term revenue through 2031.
• Analysts at D.A. Davidson and BWS Financial reaffirm bullish ratings, with price targets raised to $130 and $206, respectively.

Nebius Group’s stock is riding a wave of optimism fueled by its strategic partnership with Microsoft, a $17.4B AI infrastructure agreement that positions the firm as a key player in the AI-as-a-Service (AIaaS) boom. The stock’s 4.5% intraday gain reflects investor confidence in Nebius’s ability to capitalize on surging demand for cloud-based AI compute power. With a 52-week high of $138.53 and a dynamic P/E ratio of 36.12, the stock is trading at a premium to peers but remains below its valuation multiple of 14.4x seen in similar AI infrastructure firms.

Microsoft Partnership Validates AI Infrastructure Leadership
Nebius Group’s 4.5% intraday rally is directly tied to its $17.4B multi-year AI infrastructure deal with Microsoft, announced earlier this week. The agreement, which includes GPU capacity from a new New Jersey data center, provides Nebius with stable revenue visibility through 2031 and cements its role in the AI infrastructure ecosystem. Analysts highlight that the partnership de-risks growth concerns while accelerating scale, with Motley Fool projecting $3.2B in revenue and $428.7M in earnings by 2028. Additionally, Nebius’s recent $3.7B capital raise—comprising a $2.75B convertible note offering and a $1B public share sale—has bolstered investor confidence in its ability to execute on expansion plans. The stock’s surge follows a 43.8% jump after an analyst upgrade, signaling strong institutional and retail demand.

Data Processing & Outsourced Services Sector Gains Momentum
The Data Processing & Outsourced Services sector, led by Microsoft (MSFT) with a 0.53% intraday gain, is benefiting from broader AI infrastructure demand. Nebius’s partnership with Microsoft aligns with the sector’s focus on cloud computing and AI-driven solutions. While Microsoft’s modest rise contrasts with Nebius’s 4.5% surge, the sector’s overall momentum underscores the growing importance of AI infrastructure in enterprise computing.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on AI Infrastructure Rally
• Technical Indicators: RSI at 68.92 (overbought), MACD 12.62 (bullish), 200-day MA at $48.58 (far below current price).
• Key Levels: Bollinger Bands show price near upper band ($137.98), suggesting short-term overbought conditions.
• Options Focus: High-liquidity contracts with moderate delta and leverage ratios offer asymmetric potential.

Top Options Picks:
• NBIS20251017C135 (Call, $135 strike, 2025-10-17 expiry):
- IV: 92.19% (high volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 21.56% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.5467 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -1.1314 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0270 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 475,029 (high liquidity)
- Payoff (5% upside): $135.445 → $142.22, yielding $7.22 per contract.
- Why it stands out: Balances leverage and liquidity, ideal for a short-term bullish bet as Nebius tests its 52-week high.

• NBIS20251017C136 (Call, $136 strike, 2025-10-17 expiry):
- IV: 95.19% (elevated)
- Leverage Ratio: 22.64% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.5203 (moderate)
- Theta: -1.1269 (rapid decay)
- Gamma: 0.0263 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 395,403 (high liquidity)
- Payoff (5% upside): $135.445 → $142.22, yielding $6.22 per contract.
- Why it stands out: Slightly out-of-the-money but offers higher leverage for aggressive bulls targeting a breakout above $138.53.

Trading Setup: Aggressive bulls should target a breakout above $138.53 (intraday high) with a stop-loss near $132.65 (intraday low). The RSI’s overbought reading suggests a pullback is possible, but strong options liquidity and gamma exposure make these contracts ideal for directional bets.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
Below is an interactive back-test report that summarises the requested strategy. Simply open the module to explore equity-curve, trade log, and detailed statistics.Key take-aways (auto-calculated):• Total return: 29.66% • Annualised return: 8.02% • Max draw-down: 12.92% • Sharpe ratio: 0.53 Default parameters chosen for clarity – Take-profit 10 % and stop-loss 8 %: common intraday risk controls. – Holding period fixed at one day to match your instruction.Feel free to adjust any settings and rerun if you’d like deeper exploration.

AI Infrastructure Momentum Unlikely to Subside—Act Now
Nebius Group’s 4.5% rally is a testament to the AI infrastructure sector’s explosive growth potential, driven by its landmark Microsoft deal and robust capital-raising efforts. While the stock trades at a premium to peers, its valuation remains justified by projected revenue and earnings growth. Investors should monitor the $138.53 level for a potential breakout and watch Microsoft’s 0.53% intraday gain for sector-wide cues. For those seeking leverage, the NBIS20251017C135 and C136 options offer high gamma and liquidity to capitalize on near-term volatility. Act now: Position for a breakout above $138.53 or consider short-term calls to ride the AI infrastructure wave.