Nebius Group (NBIS) Surges 4.06% on AI Cloud Launch and Data Center Expansion Momentum – What’s Fueling This Rally?

Summary
• Nebius Group (NBIS) trades at $100.12, up 4.06% intraday with a 52-week range of $18.31–$141.10.
• Intraday high of $102.54 and low of $96.0211 highlight volatile price action.
• Company announces AI Cloud 3.1 powered by NVIDIA and aggressive data center expansion plans.

Nebius Group’s stock has surged over 4% on January 8, 2026, driven by a strategic AI infrastructure rollout and data center expansion. The stock’s sharp intraday move reflects investor optimism around contracted power capacity and presold AI compute demand, despite a broader sector slowdown led by Microsoft’s -1.19% decline.

AI Cloud 3.1 Launch and Data Center Expansion Drive Nebius Group’s Rally
Nebius Group’s 4.06% intraday gain is directly tied to its launch of AI Cloud 3.1, powered by NVIDIA’s latest accelerators, and its aggressive data center expansion strategy. The company announced 2.5 gigawatts of contracted power by 2026, with presold capacity across new facilities in the U.S., U.K., and Israel. This execution certainty—secured power and precommitments from customers—reduces capital risk and validates long-term revenue visibility. Management’s emphasis on 800–1,000 megawatts of fully connected data center power by 2026 further underscores operational scalability, positioning the stock to outperform in a supply-constrained AI infrastructure market.

Internet Content & Information Sector Mixed as Nebius Outperforms Microsoft
The Internet Content & Information sector, led by Microsoft (MSFT), saw mixed performance, with MSFT down 1.19% intraday. Nebius’s 4.06% rally contrasts sharply with the sector’s flat-to-negative tone, driven by its unique focus on AI infrastructure monetization. While Microsoft and CoreWeave face capacity constraints, Nebius’s presold data center model offers a clearer path to revenue growth, leveraging NVIDIA’s B300 and GB300 GPUs to secure long-term contracts.

Options Play: High-Leverage Puts and Calls for Short-Term Volatility
• RSI: 63.73 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: -0.502 (bullish divergence with histogram at 1.76)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $100.12 (above middle band at $88.66)
• 200D MA: $68.70 (far below current price)
• Support/Resistance: 30D support at $100.07, 200D support at $50.06

Nebius’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish bias, with RSI near overbought levels and MACD divergence hinting at momentum. The stock is trading above its 30D and 100D moving averages, with Bollinger Bands indicating a breakout potential. Two high-leverage options stand out for volatility-driven strategies:

1. NBIS20260116P95 (Put Option)
• Strike: $95 | Expiration: 2026-01-16 | IV: 87.97% | Leverage: 30.21% | Delta: -0.335 | Theta: -0.109 | Gamma: 0.026 | Turnover: 75,824
• IV (high volatility) and Leverage (30x+) amplify potential gains if the stock dips below $95.
• Delta (-0.335) suggests moderate sensitivity to price drops, while Gamma (0.026) ensures responsiveness to further declines.
• Payoff at 5% downside (ST = $95.11): $0.11 (limited risk, high reward).

2. NBIS20260116C95 (Call Option)
• Strike: $95 | Expiration: 2026-01-16 | IV: 91.17% | Leverage: 12.05% | Delta: 0.661 | Theta: -0.556 | Gamma: 0.0256 | Turnover: 376,156
• IV (91%) and Leverage (12x) offer amplified upside if the stock breaks above $102.54.
• Delta (0.661) and Gamma (0.0256) suggest strong directional exposure with time decay (Theta) favoring a quick move.
• Payoff at 5% upside (ST = $105.13): $10.13 (high reward for bullish bets).

Aggressive bulls may consider NBIS20260116C95 into a bounce above $102.54, while short-term volatility traders could pair the put and call for a straddle strategy.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
The backtest of NBIS's performance following a 4% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 53.50%, the 10-Day win rate is 56.69%, and the 30-Day win rate is 61.78%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 35.43%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that NBIS can deliver significant gains even after the initial 4% surge.

Bullish Momentum Intact – Watch for $102.54 Breakout and Sector Catalysts
Nebius Group’s rally is underpinned by its AI infrastructure execution and contracted power visibility, but sustainability depends on maintaining its $102.54 intraday high. A breakout above this level could trigger a retest of the 52-week high at $141.10, while a pullback to $96.02 (intraday low) may test 30D support at $100.07. Investors should monitor Microsoft’s (-1.19% intraday) capacity constraints and CoreWeave’s expansion delays as sector-wide risks. For now, the stock’s technicals and strategic momentum favor a bullish stance, with the $95 strike options offering high-leverage entry points. Watch for $102.54 breakout or regulatory reaction.