Nebius Group (NBIS) Surges 3.92%: What’s Fueling the AI Infrastructure Giant’s Rally?

Summary
• Nebius Group (NBIS) secures $3 billion Meta AI infrastructure deal
• Q3 revenue jumps 355% to $146.1 million, missing estimates
• $1 billion convertible notes issuance accelerates expansion plans
• Shares trade at 94.09, up 3.92% with intraday range of 91.88–95.58

Nebius Group’s stock is surging amid a landmark $3 billion contract with Meta and aggressive expansion plans. The AI infrastructure leader’s Q3 results, marked by record revenue growth and a $1 billion capital raise, have ignited investor enthusiasm. With the stock trading near its 52-week high of 141.1, the rally reflects confidence in Nebius’ ability to scale its neocloud operations despite widening losses.

Meta Contract and Q3 Revenue Surge Drive NBIS Rally
Nebius Group’s 3.92% intraday gain is directly tied to its $3 billion, five-year AI infrastructure deal with Meta, announced alongside Q3 results. The contract, which follows a $17.4 billion Microsoft agreement, underscores Nebius’ pivotal role in the AI infrastructure boom. While Q3 revenue surged 355% to $146.1 million, the stock’s rise reflects optimism about future revenue potential, as the company projects a $7–9 billion annualized run rate by 2026. The $1 billion convertible notes issuance further signals confidence in scaling operations, despite a $100.4 million net loss for the quarter.

Cloud Computing Sector Mixed as NBIS Outperforms AMZN
The broader cloud computing sector is mixed, with Amazon.com (AMZN) down 1.6% as of 14:55 ET. Nebius’ rally contrasts with Amazon’s decline, highlighting its unique positioning in the AI infrastructure niche. While hyperscalers like Amazon face capacity constraints, Nebius is capitalizing on its specialized neocloud model, securing contracts with Meta and Microsoft. This divergence underscores Nebius’ ability to monetize AI demand more directly than generalist cloud providers.

Options Playbook: Leverage NBIS’s Bullish Momentum with Gamma-Driven Calls
• 200-day average: 59.24 (well below current price)
• RSI: 27.97 (oversold territory)
• MACD: -6.40 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: 79.72–137.62 (current price near upper band)

Nebius Group’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish bias, with the 95.58 intraday high acting as a critical resistance level. The stock’s K-line pattern—a short-term bearish trend within a long-term bullish structure—hints at volatility ahead. For leveraged exposure, consider the NBIS20251128C95 and NBIS20251128C94 call options, which balance gamma sensitivity and liquidity.

• NBIS20251128C95 (Call, $95 strike, Nov 28 expiry):
- IV: 94.18% (high)
- LVR: 14.77% (moderate leverage)
- Delta: 0.56 (moderate directional sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.49 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.026 (strong price responsiveness)
- Turnover: 135,318 (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside (98.84): $3.84/share
- Ideal for aggressive bulls targeting a breakout above 95.58.

• NBIS20251128C94 (Call, $94 strike, Nov 28 expiry):
- IV: 87.53% (high)
- LVR: 14.55% (moderate leverage)
- Delta: 0.59 (moderate directional sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.48 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.028 (strong price responsiveness)
- Turnover: 22,230 (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside (98.84): $4.84/share
- Offers higher upside potential with lower breakeven risk.

Aggressive bulls should consider NBIS20251128C94 into a test of 95.58, while hedging with a stop below 91.88.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
I attempted to construct the event-based back-test exactly as requested:1. Pulled the full NBIS.O OHLC history (2022-01-01 → 2025-11-18). 2. Filtered for trading days on which (High – Open) / Open ≥ 4 %. 3. Passed the resulting date list to the event-back-test engine.The engine raised an internal error because the event list it received was empty. That means NBIS.O has not recorded a single trading day since 2022 where the intraday High was at least 4 % above the Open price, so there are no occurrences to evaluate.Next steps – please let me know which you prefer:• Lower the surge threshold (e.g. 3 % or 2 %) to capture more frequent events and rerun the back-test. • Change the event definition (for example, use Close − Open ≥ 4 % instead of High − Open). • Analyse a different stock or time span.Just tell me your preference and I’ll proceed.

Bullish Momentum Unlikely to Subside: Watch for 95.58 Breakout and AMZN’s Drag
Nebius Group’s rally is underpinned by its strategic position in the AI infrastructure arms race, with the Meta and Microsoft contracts ensuring near-term revenue visibility. While the stock’s 52-week high of 141.1 remains distant, the 95.58 intraday high is a critical near-term target. Investors should monitor the 91.88 support level and the broader cloud sector, where Amazon’s 1.6% decline could weigh on sentiment. For now, the NBIS20251128C94 call offers a compelling leveraged play on the breakout. Watch for a sustained close above 95.58 to confirm the next leg higher.