Nebius Group (NBIS) Surges 19% on Record Revenue and Bold AI Expansion Plans

Summary
• Nebius Group (NBIS) rockets 19.17% intraday to $65.65, hitting its 52-week high of $70.54
• Q2 revenue jumps 625% YoY to $105.1M, with ARR guidance raised to $900M–$1.1B for 2025
• CEO Arkady Volozh signals aggressive 1 GW power expansion by 2026
• Options frenzy: 147,100 contracts traded on 8/7, with $65 call options seeing 147,100x turnover

Nebius Group’s stock is in a tailwind-driven ascent, fueled by record-breaking Q2 results and audacious AI infrastructure ambitions. The 19.17% intraday surge—driven by a 625% YoY revenue spike and a 106% QoQ jump—has ignited a frenzy in the options market. With the stock trading near its 52-week high and a 21.6% turnover rate, investors are betting on a paradigm shift in AI cloud computing.

Q2 Earnings and AI Infrastructure Ambitions Ignite Rally
Nebius Group’s 19.17% intraday surge is a direct response to its Q2 financial results and strategic roadmap. Revenue of $105.1 million—a 625% YoY increase—surpassed Wall Street’s $101.2 million estimate, while positive Adjusted EBITDA ahead of plan signaled operational discipline. CEO Arkady Volozh’s letter to shareholders emphasized securing 1 GW of power by 2026, positioning Nebius to capitalize on the AI infrastructure boom. The raised ARR guidance to $900M–$1.1B for 2025 further solidified investor confidence, with the stock’s 144% YTD rally reflecting its role as a key player in the AI cloud ecosystem.

IT Services Sector Volatility Amid AI Infrastructure Frenzy
The IT Services sector, led by Amazon (AMZN) at -0.40% intraday, shows mixed momentum. While Nebius’s 19.17% rally outpaces broader sector movements, its aggressive AI infrastructure bets contrast with Amazon’s recent audio restructuring. The sector’s focus on AI compute and cloud scalability aligns with Nebius’s trajectory, but its 21.6% turnover rate and 52-week high suggest it’s outpacing peers in short-term speculative fervor.

Options and ETF Playbook for AI Cloud Infrastructure Bulls
• Technical Indicators: 200-day MA: $33.49 (far below), RSI: 53.88 (neutral), MACD: 1.66 (bullish), Bollinger Bands: $46.71–$57.30 (price at upper band)
• ETF/Options: No leveraged ETF data available; focus on options liquidity and implied volatility

Top Options Picks:
• NBIS20250815C65 (Call, $65 strike, 8/15 expiry):
- IV: 74.02% (high)
- Delta: 0.5699 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.3265 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0513 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $1.0M (liquid)
- Why: High IV and gamma make this call ideal for a continuation of the 52-week high breakout. A 5% upside to $69.00 would yield a 212% payoff (max(0, 69.00 - 65.00) = $4.00).
• NBIS20250815P65 (Put, $65 strike, 8/15 expiry):
- IV: 79.13% (high)
- Delta: -0.4315 (moderate bearish bias)
- Theta: -0.0323 (slow decay)
- Gamma: 0.0480 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: $345.8K (liquid)
- Why: High IV and moderate delta offer downside protection if the 52-week high fails. A 5% downside to $62.37 would yield a 80.62% payoff (max(0, 65.00 - 62.37) = $2.63).

Trading Setup: Aggressive bulls should target the $65 call for a 52-week high breakout, while cautious bulls may hedge with the $65 put. Key levels to watch: 52-week high ($70.54) and 200-day MA ($33.49). The stock’s 53.88 RSI suggests it’s not overbought yet, but the 1.66 MACD and 0.0513 gamma indicate momentum is intact.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
The backtest of NBIS's performance after a 19% intraday surge shows favorable results, with win rates and returns indicating positive short-to-medium-term gains. NBIS delivered a 34.58% maximum return over 30 days, suggesting the strategy capitalized effectively on the initial surge.

AI Cloud Infrastructure: Now or Never for Positioning
Nebius Group’s 19.17% rally is a testament to its AI infrastructure dominance and aggressive scaling plans. With the stock near its 52-week high and a 21.6% turnover rate, the window for momentum-driven positioning is narrowing. Investors should prioritize the $65 call for a breakout above $70.54 or the $65 put for downside protection. Meanwhile, the IT Services sector leader Amazon (AMZN) at -0.40% highlights the sector’s mixed momentum. For AI cloud bulls, the message is clear: secure exposure now or risk missing the next phase of AI infrastructure growth.