Nebius Group's 14% Surge: AI Cloud Breakthrough or Acquisition Hype?

Summary
• Nebius Group (NBIS) surges 14.1% to $89.10, hitting a 52-week high of $89.23
• Analysts cite AI demand resilience and 2026 acquisition speculation as key drivers
• CoreWeave (CRWV) surges 22.8% as AI cloud sector rallies

Nebius Group’s 14.1% intraday rally on December 19, 2025, has ignited speculation about its AI cloud infrastructure and potential acquisition targets. With a 52-week high of $141.10 and a 45% correction from October peaks, the stock’s volatility reflects broader AI sector dynamics. Analysts highlight Wedbush’s acquisition thesis and Citi’s demand validation as catalysts, while technical indicators suggest a short-term bearish trend amid long-term consolidation.

AI Cloud 3.1 Launch and Acquisition Hype Drive NBIS Surge
Nebius Group’s 14.1% surge stems from two key catalysts: the launch of its AI Cloud 3.1 platform and renewed acquisition speculation. The company’s AI Cloud 3.1, powered by Nvidia’s Blackwell Ultra chips, has positioned it as a leader in scalable AI infrastructure. Simultaneously, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives identified Nebius as a top 2026 acquisition target for hyperscalers like Amazon or Microsoft. This dual narrative—operational innovation and strategic buyout potential—has attracted both retail and institutional buyers, with volume surging to 13.1 million shares (6.38% of float). The move also aligns with broader sector strength, as peers like CoreWeave (CRWV) rallied 22.8% on similar AI demand optimism.

AI Cloud Sector Rally: CoreWeave Leads as NBIS Surges
The AI cloud sector has seen a synchronized rally, with CoreWeave (CRWV) surging 22.8% and Nebius (NBIS) up 14.1%. This momentum follows Citi analyst Tyler Radke’s upgrade of CoreWeave to ‘Buy’ with a $135 price target, underscoring robust demand for AI compute. While CoreWeave’s gains reflect its pure-play exposure to AI data centers, Nebius benefits from its diversified AI infrastructure and acquisition speculation. The sector’s strength contrasts with broader market concerns about debt financing for AI projects, yet demand remains resilient. Investors are now weighing whether this rally is a sector-wide correction or a precursor to consolidation.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls and Volatility-Driven Puts
• RSI: 33.64 (oversold)
• MACD: -5.66 (bearish), Signal: -4.06, Histogram: -1.60
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $107.35, Middle $91.13, Lower $74.90
• 200-day MA: $64.89 (far below current price)
• Support/Resistance: 30D $94.08–$94.79, 200D $50.06–$52.37

Nebius’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish trend within a long-term ranging pattern. The RSI at 33.64 indicates oversold conditions, but the MACD histogram’s negative divergence warns of potential pullbacks. Key levels to watch include the 30-day support at $94.08 and the 200-day resistance at $52.37. With implied volatility at 68–71%, options traders are pricing in significant near-term volatility. The options chain reveals two standout contracts:

• NBIS20251226C90: Call option with $90 strike, 68.52% IV, 0.47 delta, -0.42 theta, 0.044 gamma, $595k turnover. High leverage (28.74%) and moderate delta make this ideal for a 5% upside scenario (target $93.56).
• NBIS20251226P88: Put option with $88 strike, 70.54% IV, -0.27 delta, -0.01 theta, 0.042 gamma, $123k turnover. Strong gamma and IV suggest potential for volatility-driven gains if the stock consolidates.

Aggressive bulls should consider NBIS20251226C90 for a 5% upside, while volatility traders may target NBIS20251226P88 for a pullback. Watch for a break above $94.08 to validate the bullish case.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
The backtest of NBIS's performance following a 14% intraday surge from 2022 to the present reveals favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 55.10%, the 10-Day win rate is 58.50%, and the 30-Day win rate is 63.95%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 35.67% over 30 days, suggesting that NBIS can deliver significant gains even after the initial surge.

Bullish Momentum Unlikely to Subside: Watch CoreWeave's Lead
Nebius Group’s 14.1% surge is a testament to its AI cloud innovation and acquisition narrative, but sustainability hinges on demand resilience and sector leadership. With CoreWeave (CRWV) surging 22.8%, the AI cloud sector remains in focus. Investors should monitor Wedbush’s 2026 acquisition thesis and Citi’s demand validation for confirmation. For now, hold long positions above $94.08 or consider NBIS20251226C90 for a 5% upside. The key takeaway: Watch CoreWeave’s lead and Nebius’s $94.08 support level for next steps.