Nebius Group (NBIS) Surges 12.88% on Landmark Microsoft AI Pact and Analyst Hype – Is This the Start of a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Nebius Group (NBIS) surges 12.88% to $88.15, hitting a fresh 52-week high of $88.87
• Landmark $17.4 billion AI infrastructure deal with Microsoft confirmed, validating full-stack platform
• Analysts upgrade NBIS with $130 price target, while BWS Financial raises target to $130
• $3.7 billion capital raise post-deal fuels expansion, but share dilution risks linger

Nebius Group’s stock has erupted on the back of a transformative Microsoft AI infrastructure contract and a flurry of analyst upgrades. The stock’s 12.88% intraday gain reflects a mix of strategic validation, capital-raising momentum, and speculative fervor. With a 52-week high of $88.87 and a 52-week low of $18.31, the stock’s volatility underscores its position as a high-risk, high-reward AI infrastructure play.

Microsoft AI Pact and Analyst Hype Ignite Short-Term Rally
Nebius Group’s explosive 12.88% surge is directly tied to its $17.4 billion multi-year AI infrastructure deal with Microsoft, announced earlier this week. The agreement, which secures stable revenue through 2031, has positioned Nebius as a key player in the AI cloud infrastructure race. Analysts at D.A. Davidson and BWS Financial have reinforced bullish sentiment, with the latter raising its price target to $130. Additionally, Nebius raised $3.7 billion via stock and convertible note sales to fund data-center expansion, further fueling investor optimism. However, concerns over share dilution and execution risks remain, as highlighted by a $1 billion public offering at $92.50 per share.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls and Volatility-Driven Puts for NBIS
• 200-day average: $64.89 (well below current price)
• RSI: 33.64 (oversold territory)
• MACD: -5.66 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $74.90 (lower band) vs. $107.35 (upper band)
• Kline pattern: Short-term bearish trend, long-term ranging

Nebius Group’s technicals suggest a volatile but structurally bullish setup. The RSI at 33.64 indicates oversold conditions, while the MACD’s bearish divergence hints at short-term profit-taking. However, the 200-day average at $64.89 remains a critical support level. For options traders, the key is leveraging high-liquidity contracts with favorable leverage and implied volatility ratios. Two standout options from the provided chain are:

• NBIS20251226C85 (Call, $85 strike, 12/26 expiration):
- IV: 72.39% (high volatility)
- Leverage ratio: 16.02% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.654 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.486 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.039 (responsive to price swings)
- Turnover: 573,484 (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $3.58 (max(0, 92.56 - 85))
This call option offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a continuation of the Microsoft-driven rally. The high IV and moderate delta make it a strong candidate for short-term bullish bets.

• NBIS20251226P85 (Put, $85 strike, 12/26 expiration):
- IV: 69.82% (high volatility)
- Leverage ratio: 40.05% (high)
- Delta: -0.342 (moderate bearish exposure)
- Theta: -0.0425 (slow time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0403 (responsive to price swings)
- Turnover: 123,104 (moderate liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $0 (max(0, 85 - 92.56))
This put option provides high leverage for downside protection, though its negative payoff in a bullish scenario makes it a hedging tool rather than a speculative play. Traders should pair it with the call for a balanced position.

Actionable Insight: Aggressive bulls may consider NBIS20251226C85 into a breakout above $88.87, while cautious investors should monitor the 200-day average at $64.89 for a potential reversal.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
The backtest of NBIS's performance following a 13% intraday increase from 2022 to the present reveals favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 55.10%, the 10-Day win rate is 58.50%, and the 30-Day win rate is 63.95%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 35.67%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that NBIS can deliver significant gains after the intraday surge.

NBIS’s AI Infrastructure Play Gains Momentum – Watch for Execution Risks
Nebius Group’s 12.88% surge is a testament to the market’s belief in its AI infrastructure potential, particularly with Microsoft’s $17.4 billion pact. However, the stock’s high volatility and recent capital-raising dilution pose execution risks. Traders should focus on the $85 strike options for directional bets, while institutional investors may monitor the 200-day average at $64.89 as a critical support level. For context, sector leader Microsoft (MSFT) is up 0.375%, reinforcing the broader AI infrastructure theme. Act now: Position in NBIS20251226C85 for a bullish continuation or NBIS20251226P85 for downside hedging, but watch for a breakdown below $74.90 to trigger a reevaluation.