Nebius Group (NBIS) Rallies 16.56% Following 10.34% Drop as Technical Indicators Confirm Uptrend

Nebius Group (NBIS) closed its most recent session with a 16.56% surge, reaching ¥86.1 per share. This sharp rally follows a volatile correction phase marked by a -10.34% drop in the prior session, suggesting potential short-term momentum shifts. The price action over the past two weeks has created a bearish engulfing pattern on February 5 (¥73.87 close) followed by a strong reversal bullish candle on February 6, indicating aggressive buying pressure after a brief pullback. Key support levels appear to form around ¥73–77 (prior lows), while resistance is evident near ¥86–87 (current level).

Candlestick Theory

The recent 16.56% rally forms a long-bodied bullish candle with a small upper shadow, suggesting strong conviction among buyers. This contrasts with the preceding bearish engulfing pattern, where a large red candle (February 5) consumed the previous day’s green body. Such patterns often signal trend reversals, but the subsequent breakout above ¥86.1 implies a potential continuation of the upward move. Intermediate-term support is likely found at ¥73.87 (February 5 close) and ¥77.12 (February 6 low), while resistance could emerge at ¥86.66 (February 6 high).

Moving Average Theory

Short-term momentum appears to have overtaken long-term trends. The 50-day moving average (calculated as ¥88.50–¥89.50 based on recent data) is currently being approached from below, indicating potential for a bullish crossover. The 200-day MA, however, remains significantly higher at ¥95–¥97, suggesting the stock is still below its long-term trend. A break above ¥86.66 could trigger a 50/200 MA crossover, validating a short-term uptrend. Conversely, a retest of ¥73.87 could see the 50-day MA act as dynamic support.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD line has recently crossed above the signal line, forming a bullish crossover, while the histogram has turned positive, aligning with the price surge. This suggests strengthening momentum. The KDJ indicator shows %K rising above %D, indicating overbought conditions (with %K approaching 80), but this must be interpreted cautiously due to the stock’s recent volatility. Divergences between the KDJ and price action are minimal for now, but a sharp decline in %K below %D could signal a near-term pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has spiked, with the upper band expanding to ¥86.66 and the lower band contracting to ¥77.12. The recent close at ¥86.1 sits near the upper band, suggesting overbought conditions and a potential for consolidation. The narrow band contraction observed in late January (¥80.95–¥94.91 range) preceded the recent breakout, a classic "Bollinger Bounce" pattern. A retest of the lower band (¥77.12) could offer a buying opportunity if the 20-day MA holds.

Volume-Price Relationship

The recent 16.895M traded volume on February 6 is the highest in the past two weeks, validating the price surge. However, volume declined on the preceding bearish session (17.44M), which may indicate weakening bearish conviction. The volume profile suggests strong institutional participation in the rally, as evidenced by the high-volume bar at ¥86.1. A continuation of rising volume with further price gains would reinforce the bullish case, while declining volume on new highs could signal exhaustion.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI has surged into overbought territory (75–80), aligning with the recent 16.56% jump. While this typically warns of a potential correction, the stock’s volatility and recent breakout suggest the overbought level may hold as a psychological barrier. A close below 60 would indicate weakening momentum, but given the MACD and KDJ signals, a short-term pullback to 60–65 is more likely than an immediate reversal.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key retracement levels derived from the January 29 high (¥94.91) and February 5 low (¥73.87) include 38.2% at ¥83.50 and 50% at ¥84.39. The recent close at ¥86.1 has already breached these levels, suggesting buyers are extending the rally. A critical test will be the 61.8% retracement at ¥87.10; a break above this could target the ¥94.91 prior high. Conversely, a failure to hold ¥83.50 may trigger a retest of the 73.87 support.

The analysis highlights confluence between the bullish candlestick reversal, MACD crossover, and volume surge, all supporting a continuation of the upward trend. However, the RSI overbought condition and Bollinger Band proximity to the upper bound suggest caution, as these often precede corrections. Divergences are currently minimal, but a breakdown below ¥83.50 or a failure in the KDJ indicator could signal a shift in momentum. Traders should monitor the 50-day MA as a dynamic support level and watch for volume confirmation on subsequent rallies.