Nebius Group (NBIS) Plunges 5.9% Amid $17.4B Microsoft Win and $1B Share Sale: What’s Fueling the Volatility?

Summary
• Nebius Group (NBIS) trades at $106.50, down 5.94% intraday after hitting a 52-week high of $114.85
• $17.4B Microsoft AI infrastructure deal and $1B public offering dominate headlines
• Analysts raise price targets to $130, but dilution risks and profit-taking pressure weigh on sentiment

Nebius Group’s stock is in a tailspin despite landmark AI infrastructure wins and bullish analyst upgrades. The $17.4 billion Microsoft deal and $1B capital raise have created a tug-of-war between optimism and caution. With a 5.94% intraday drop and a 52-week low of $14.09, the stock’s volatility underscores the tension between growth potential and execution risks.

Dilution Fears and Profit-Taking Overshadow Microsoft Megadeal
Nebius Group’s sharp decline stems from a combination of profit-taking after a 43.8% rally and concerns over equity dilution. The $1B public offering of Class A shares at $92.50—below the current price—has raised red flags about shareholder value erosion. Meanwhile, the $2.75B convertible notes offering, while funding growth, embeds conversion premiums of 68–75% at maturity, creating long-term downside risks. Despite the Microsoft deal validating Nebius’s AI infrastructure, the market is pricing in near-term execution challenges, including data-center expansion costs and competition from rivals like Nvidia.

Data Processing Sector Steadies as Microsoft (-0.31%) Anchors Performance
Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility with Put Premiums and Covered Calls
• RSI: 85.92 (overbought)
• MACD: 10.997 (bullish), Signal Line: 8.5886 (alignment)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $106.50 (above middle band of $85.03)
• 200D MA: $43.26 (far below current price)

Nebius’s technicals suggest a short-term overbought condition, but the 52-week high of $114.85 and strong MACD alignment indicate resilience. Key support levels at $103–$105 and resistance at $110–$112 will dictate near-term direction. With Q3 earnings on Sept. 16 and Microsoft deal execution as catalysts, the stock could test $100 or rebound to $115.

Top Options Picks:
• NBIS20251003P107 (Put):
- Strike: $107, Expiry: 2025-10-03, IV: 93.36%, Leverage: 21.95%, Delta: -0.3999, Theta: -0.1194, Gamma: 0.0240, Turnover: 75,653
- IV (high volatility) and Leverage (21.95%) amplify potential gains if the stock drops below $107.
- Payoff (5% downside to $101.18): $5.82 per contract. Ideal for bearish bets with high liquidity.
• NBIS20251003C110 (Call):
- Strike: $110, Expiry: 2025-10-03, IV: 75.86%, Leverage: 21.31%, Delta: 0.5197, Theta: -0.5293, Gamma: 0.0305, Turnover: 244,234
- Delta (0.5197) and Gamma (0.0305) suggest sensitivity to price swings. IV (75.86%) balances risk and reward.
- Payoff (5% upside to $111.83): $1.83 per contract. Suitable for bullish traders expecting a rebound above $110.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider NBIS20251003C110 into a bounce above $110, while bears should eye NBIS20251003P107 if $107 breaks. Both contracts offer high liquidity and leverage for directional bets.

Backtest Nebius Group Stock Performance
Here is the back-test report for “buy NBIS.O after a ≥ 6 % daily drop” covering 1 Jan 2022 – 25 Sep 2025.Key results (single trade triggered):• Total return: +111.9 %• Annualised return: 68.1 %• Max draw-down: –68.0 %• Sharpe ratio: 0.82Important assumptions made automatically1. Price source Daily close prices (intraday bar data unavailable). 2. Drop definition Close-to-close fall ≤ –6 %. 3. Entry rule Buy at the next trading-day close after the qualifying drop. 4. Exit rule No explicit sell signal provided, so the position was held until the test period ended (25 Sep 2025). 5. Risk control None specified.Because only one qualifying event occurred in the sample, the statistics lack robustness; interpret them with caution.You can explore the full interactive report below.Open the module to review entry dates, equity-curve chart, and detailed trade log.

Nebius at a Crossroads: Execution or Correction?
Nebius Group’s 5.94% drop reflects a market grappling with the tension between its $17.4B Microsoft win and capital-raising dilution. While the stock’s 52-week high and strong MACD suggest resilience, the $1B share sale and $2.75B convertible notes pose near-term headwinds. Investors must watch the $105 support level and Q3 earnings on Sept. 16 for clarity. Meanwhile, sector leader Microsoft (-0.31%) offers a benchmark for broader AI infrastructure sentiment. Act now: Position for a rebound with NBIS20251003C110 or hedge downside with NBIS20251003P107 as the stock navigates this critical juncture.