Nebius Group (NBIS) Climbs 5.04% on Six-Day Rally Nears Key Technical Thresholds After 26.61% Surge

Nebius Group (NBIS) is currently experiencing a strong bullish trend, with a 5.04% rise in the most recent session, marking six consecutive days of gains and a cumulative 26.61% increase. This surge positions the stock near key technical thresholds, warranting a detailed analysis across multiple frameworks.

Candlestick Theory

The recent price action of Nebius Group reflects a robust bullish momentum, characterized by higher highs and higher lows over the past six sessions. A notable pattern emerges from the 2025-09-11 to 2025-09-24 period, where the stock formed a series of bullish engulfing patterns, suggesting strong buying pressure. Key support levels are evident at the 2025-09-08 low of $64.06 and the 2025-08-29 low of $68.32, while resistance is clustered around the 2025-09-24 high of $114.85 and the 2025-09-12 high of $92.00. A breakdown below $94.12 (the 2025-09-18 close) could invalidate the current uptrend, whereas a sustained break above $107.8 (2025-09-23 high) would confirm a new bullish phase.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages align to reinforce the bullish bias. As of the latest data (2025-09-24), the 50-day MA ($90.41) is above the 100-day MA ($89.19) and the 200-day MA ($70.24), forming a "golden cross" configuration that typically signals upward momentum. The price closing above the 50-day MA ($90.41) further strengthens the case for continuation. However, a potential bearish signal could emerge if the 50-day MA crosses below the 200-day MA, though this scenario appears unlikely given the current trajectory.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD line (12, 26, 9) has recently crossed above the signal line, forming a golden cross on 2025-09-24, which aligns with the stock’s breakout above key resistance. This suggests a high-probability continuation of the uptrend. The KDJ (Stochastic) indicator, however, shows the stock entering overbought territory (K: 85.6, D: 79.3), cautioning that a short-term pullback could occur. Divergence between the KDJ and price action—where the K line fails to rise with the price—would signal weakening momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Nebius Group’s price has recently tested the upper Bollinger Band ($114.85), indicating heightened volatility. The band’s width has expanded significantly since mid-September, reflecting increased trading activity. A retest of the upper band could trigger profit-taking, while a sustained close above it would validate a new volatility regime. Conversely, a drop to the lower band ($88.83) would suggest a consolidation phase.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged alongside the price rally, with the 2025-09-24 session recording 25.3 million shares traded—well above the 10-day average of 18.5 million. This volume surge supports the sustainability of the bullish trend. However, a divergence where volume declines on rising prices (e.g., if the 2025-09-23 session’s 16.7 million volume precedes a new high) could signal waning conviction.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI (14) has reached 72.4, entering overbought territory, which typically precedes a correction. While this does not guarantee a reversal, it highlights a potential short-term risk of a pullback to the 60–65 RSI range. A failure to break above 75 would likely result in a retest of the 2025-09-18 low ($94.12).

Fibonacci Retracement

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 2025-08-05 low ($55.09) and the 2025-09-24 high ($114.85), key retracement levels at 61.8% ($87.30) and 50% ($84.97) act as critical support zones. A breakdown below $87.30 would invalidate the bullish case, while a retest of the 38.2% level ($93.45) could confirm the stock’s resilience.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of a MACD-based strategy (buying on golden crosses and selling on death crosses) from 2022 to 2025 yielded a $2,100 profit from a $10,000 initial investment, with only two trades executed. This conservative approach aligns with Nebius Group’s current technical profile, where the MACD golden cross on 2025-09-24 could serve as a high-probability entry. However, the low trade frequency underscores the need for patience and strict risk management. The strategy’s success in this context hinges on the confluence of strong moving averages and elevated volume, but traders should remain cautious of the overbought RSI and potential KDJ divergence.