Nebius Group Jumps 5.20% Amid Bullish Technical Signals

Nebius Group (NBIS) rose 5.20% to close at 94.08 in the latest session, trading between 88.83 and 95 amid elevated volume. This price action occurs against a backdrop of significant volatility, including a recent +49.42% surge on 2025-09-09 followed by a sharp correction.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions formed a potential bullish reversal pattern: the 2025-09-11 long red candle (high 93.87, close 89.19) was followed by three indecisive small-body candles, culminating in 2025-09-17's decisive green candle closing near the session high (95). Key resistance is evident at 95.00 (psychological level and recent high), with support near 88.80–89.00 (convergence of 09-11 low and 09-16 close). A sustained break above 95 could signal bullish continuation.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (approximately 73.50) maintains an upward slope above the flat 100-day MA (~70.20) and rising 200-day MA (~54.00), indicating intermediate-term bullish bias. However, the current price (94.08) trades below all major MAs except the 200-day, reflecting persistent near-term pressure. Of note, the 50-day MA crossed above the 200-day MA ("golden cross") in mid-July 2025, historically supportive of longer-term uptrends.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows a potential bullish crossover brewing, with the histogram moderating its negative momentum after the September decline. KDJ readings (calculated with 9-period lookback) rebound from oversold territory—K-line (35) and D-line (30) both inflecting upward while J-line (45) accelerates. This suggests waning bearish momentum, though KDJ remains below overbought thresholds (70+), leaving room for upside.
Bollinger Bands
Bands contracted sharply preceding the 2025-09-09 breakout (volatility squeeze), then expanded dramatically during the 49% rally. Current price hovers near the upper band (94.50–95.00) as bandwidth remains elevated, signaling sustained volatility. A close above the upper band would indicate strong bullish conviction, though mean-reversion risks persist.
Volume-Price Relationship
The 09-17 advance occurred on 24.2M shares—above the 20-day average but below the 88.3M volume spike during the 09-09 rally. Notably, the 09-11 sell-off (-4.50%) saw distribution-like volume (37.6M), but subsequent declines lacked significant volume expansion, suggesting weak bearish conviction. Current volume supports recovery but requires confirmation with follow-through volume above 30M shares.
Relative Strength Index
14-day RSI (~58) rebounds from near-oversold levels (recent low 42 on 09-16) but remains below the overbought threshold. The current reading suggests neutral momentum, diverging bullishly from price during the 09-16 low (89.43 vs. prior low 88.84 on 09-15) which warned of selling exhaustion. Further strength above 60 RSI may signal improving momentum.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the recent swing high (100.51 on 2025-09-10) and swing low (53.95 on 2025-08-06):
- 23.6% retracement: 85.00
- 38.2%: 78.50 (aligns with July consolidation zone)
- 50%: 77.23
The stock found support near the 23.6% level (tested at 86.78 on 09-12), reinforcing its technical significance. The 38.2% level represents critical long-term support should downside resume.
Confluence & Divergence
Confluence exists at 95.00, where Bollinger Band resistance, psychological price level, and the 09-17 high converge—a decisive breach could catalyze momentum buying. Bullish divergences are noted in RSI/price and volume patterns during the September pullback. However, caution is warranted as long-term resistance persists between 95–100.50, where multiple indicators show vulnerability to profit-taking pressure. The interplay between recovering momentum indicators and overhead resistance suggests a pivotal technical juncture.