Nebius Group's Hidden Asset Play: How Equity Stakes Could Supercharge AI Dominance

The AI infrastructure race is heating up, and Nebius Group (NEBI) is leveraging a unique strategy to outpace rivals: systematically monetizing non-core equity stakes to fuel hypergrowth in its core cloud and GPU infrastructure business. This “funding flywheel” approach—using stakes in companies like ClickHouse and Toloka as a capital engine—could unlock asymmetric upside for investors as Nebius scales toward its $1 billion annual revenue target.

The Catalyst: ClickHouse's Series C and the Power of Minority Stakes
Nebius' participation in ClickHouse's $350 million Series C round (led by Khosla Ventures) is a masterstroke. By maintaining a 28% minority stake in a company now valued at $6 billion, Nebius gains access to a critical real-time analytics platform while reserving its capital for core projects. This move isn't just about diversification—it's about creating a self-sustaining capital cycle. As ClickHouse expands its 2,000+ customer base (including Tesla and Meta), Nebius' stake appreciates, generating liquidity to fund its own AI data center pipeline.

The Flywheel in Action: Toloka, Avride, and the Equity Method
Nebius' strategy extends beyond ClickHouse. Its 17% stake in Avride and its recent pivot with Toloka—a $140 million strategic investment led by Bezos Expeditions—demonstrate how non-core holdings are being systematically monetized. By deconsolidating Toloka's financial results post-Q2 2025, Nebius shifts its role from operator to equity holder, reducing overhead while retaining upside. This “lighter” balance sheet allows capital to flow into high-margin core businesses like GPU-as-a-Service and AI cloud platforms.

The math is compelling:
- ClickHouse's $6B valuation implies Nebius' stake alone could be worth $1.68 billion.
- Toloka's new funding round likely boosted its valuation, adding to Nebius' equity portfolio.
- With $1.4 billion in cash and a $2 billion 2025 capex budget, Nebius is positioned to outspend rivals in data center builds and GPU acquisitions.

Financial Engineering for Scalability
Nebius' Q1 2025 results underscore its trajectory:
- Revenue surged 385% YoY to $55.3 million, driven by AI infrastructure demand.
- Adjusted EBITDA narrowed 12% to $62.6 million, with a path to positive EBITDA by late 2025.
- Full-year revenue guidance of $500–$700 million, with a $750–$1 billion annualized run rate by year-end, signals exponential growth.

The key advantage? Nebius' “flywheel” creates margin sustainability. As non-core stakes appreciate, the company can reinvest without dilution. Meanwhile, its core AI infrastructure—now part of Nvidia's DGX Cloud Lepton platform—locks in recurring revenue from frontier AI labs and enterprise customers.

Why Markets Underappreciate the Opportunity
Nebius' shares trade at a discount to peers like AWS and Google Cloud, despite its AI-specific focus and capital-light asset monetization model. The market overlooks two critical factors:
1. The minority stake advantage: Unlike competitors forced to retain control, Nebius captures upside without the burden of managing non-core businesses.
2. The AI infrastructure boom: Nebius is expanding U.S. data center capacity to 1 gigawatt+, positioning itself as a key supplier for the next wave of generative AI and agentic systems.

Act Now: The 2025 Catalysts Are Clear
- Q2 2025: Toloka's results reclassified to discontinued operations, boosting core profitability.
- 2025 capex ramp: The $140 million Israeli data center (partially funded by Israel's Innovation Authority) goes live, adding 4,000 Blackwell GPUs.
- 2025 EBITDA turn: Positive cash flow from core operations could trigger a valuation re-rating.

Risk? The Flywheel Requires Execution
Nebius' success hinges on executing its capex plans and realizing stake valuations. However, with $700 million in 2024 institutional funding (from Accel and Nvidia) and partnerships like DGX Cloud, the risks are mitigated by deep industry ties.

Conclusion: A Rare Leveraged Play on AI Infrastructure
Nebius Group is the ultimate leveraged bet on the AI boom. By monetizing minority stakes to fund core growth, it's building a capital engine that could turn $1.4 billion in cash into a $1 billion+ revenue juggernaut by 2025. With shares undervalued and a clear path to EBITDA profitability, this is a “buy the dip” opportunity for investors who recognize that hidden assets today become cash flows tomorrow.

Act fast—Nebius' flywheel is spinning, and the markets will catch up soon.