Nebius Group vs. Dell Technologies: Which AI Infrastructure Stock Offers a Better Long-Term Buy?

The AI infrastructure sector is heating up, and investors are scrambling to position themselves in the companies that will dominate this next frontier. Two names that stand out are Nebius Group and Dell Technologies. While both are building critical infrastructure for the AI revolution, their strategies, financial health, and risk profiles diverge sharply. Let's break down which stock offers a more compelling long-term opportunity.

Strategic Valuation: High-Flying Nebius vs. Undervalued Dell

Nebius Group is the poster child for high-growth tech stocks. As of November 2025, its trailing P/E ratio sits at 119.51, a staggering multiple that reflects investor enthusiasm for its explosive revenue growth and strategic AI contracts. For context, Dell Technologies trades at a far more conservative 16.73 P/E, well below the tech industry average of 22.7x. This disparity isn't arbitrary-it reflects Nebius's unproven profitability versus Dell's established cash flow.

Nebius's valuation is driven by its $556 million 2025 revenue (up 373% YoY) and a $3 billion AI infrastructure deal with Meta. Meanwhile, Dell's valuation is anchored by its $95.6 billion 2025 revenue (up 8% YoY) and a $9 billion AI server backlog. While Nebius's sky-high P/E suggests it's being priced for perfection, Dell's lower multiple offers a margin of safety, especially for investors wary of speculative bets.

Growth Sustainability: Nebius's Rocket Ship vs. Dell's Steady Climb

Nebius is riding a wave of demand. Its $17.4 billion Microsoft contract and a $3 billion Meta deal are fueling a 355% YoY revenue surge in Q3 2025 according to Q3 earnings. The company projects a $7–9 billion annualized run rate by 2026 and $5 billion in adjusted EBITDA by 2027 as reported in Q3 earnings. However, this growth comes at a cost: Nebius is burning cash, with Q3 2025 adjusted EBITDA at a $5.2 million deficit according to Q3 earnings, and it's raising capital through an at-the-market equity program and $5 billion in CapEx as detailed in company health reports.

Dell, by contrast, is scaling its AI infrastructure business more methodically. Its 20% global market share in AI servers and a $20 billion AI server revenue target by FY26 are underpinned by a $14.4 billion backlog and a 24-hour AI deployment strategy. While Dell's growth (7–9% annually) is slower than Nebius's, it's more sustainable. The company's $3.06 billion R&D spend in 2025 and $129.98 stock price reflect a balance between innovation and profitability.

Risk Profile: Nebius's Leverage vs. Dell's Stability

Nebius's aggressive expansion has left it with $4.1 billion in debt and a debt-to-equity ratio of 85.4%. The company is relying on asset-backed financing and equity dilution to fund its $5 billion CapEx plan as detailed in financial reports, which could dilute shareholder value and strain its balance sheet. While Nebius expects to turn EBITDA positive in 2026 according to Q3 earnings, its path to profitability remains uncertain.

Dell, meanwhile, is a cash-flow machine. It returned 80% of free cash flow to shareholders in 2025 and plans to increase dividends by 10% annually through FY2030. The company's $4.5 billion debt refinancing has lowered interest costs and its $95.6 billion revenue provides a buffer against margin compression from AI server production. Dell's risk lies in its reliance on enterprise demand, but its global service network and sovereign client base offer diversification.

The Verdict: Balancing Risk and Reward

Nebius Group is the high-risk, high-reward play. Its AI infrastructure deals with Meta and Microsoft could catapult it into the stratosphere, but its debt load and unproven EBITDA model make it a speculative bet. For investors with a 5–7 year horizon and a tolerance for volatility, Nebius's explosive growth could justify the risk.

Dell Technologies, however, is the blue-chip choice. Its 20% AI server market share, $3.06 billion R&D spend, and $129.98 P/E ratio reflect a company that's innovating without sacrificing stability. While its growth is more measured, Dell's ability to return cash to shareholders and navigate margin pressures makes it a safer long-term hold.

In the AI infrastructure race, Nebius is the underdog with a rocket, while Dell is the seasoned veteran with a roadmap. Your choice depends on whether you're chasing moonshots or building a fortress.