Nebius Group's ARR Per MW: A Catalyst for $100B+ Enterprise Value in the AI Infrastructure Era

The AI infrastructure boom is reshaping global technology markets, and Nebius Group has emerged as a strategic leader through its unparalleled focus on energy efficiency and scalability. At the heart of its value proposition lies the Annualized Run-Rate Revenue (ARR) per Megawatt (MW) metric—a critical indicator of operational efficiency and financial scalability. By analyzing Nebius's ARR per MW trajectory, we uncover a compelling case for a $100B+ enterprise value (EV) upside, driven by its ability to monetize power capacity at rates far exceeding industry benchmarks.

The ARR Per MW: A Metric of Precision and Power

Nebius's ARR per MW measures the revenue generated from each megawatt of connected or active power in its AI cloud infrastructure. As of Q2 2025, the company reported an ARR of $430 million with 220 MW of connected power, translating to an ARR per MW of approximately $1.95 million. However, this figure masks a more dynamic reality: when factoring in active power (100–175 MW by year-end 2025), the ARR per MW jumps to $5.14 million to $6.29 million. This stark contrast highlights Nebius's ability to optimize utilization rates and extract maximum value from its infrastructure.

The company's guidance for 2025 ARR of $900 million to $1.1 billion, combined with its plan to secure 1 GW of power by 2026, suggests a compounding effect. If Nebius maintains or improves its ARR per MW as it scales, the total revenue could surge to $5.1 billion to $6.3 billion by 2026 (1 GW × $5.1M–$6.3M/MW). Such growth would position Nebius to achieve a $100B+ EV at a 16x–20x revenue multiple—a valuation range typical for high-growth AI infrastructure firms.

Strategic Expansion and Competitive Moats

Nebius's aggressive capacity expansion is underpinned by three key advantages:
1. Vertical Integration: By controlling both hardware (NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs) and software (custom AI cloud stack), Nebius minimizes bottlenecks and maximizes performance per watt.
2. Global Footprint: Greenfield projects in the U.S., UK, and Europe provide access to low-cost power and proximity to enterprise clients, reducing latency and operational costs.
3. Partnership Ecosystem: Collaborations with Mistral, Base 10, and NVIDIA DGX Cloud Lepton create flywheel effects, driving demand for Nebius's infrastructure while enhancing its platform's capabilities.

These factors create a self-reinforcing cycle: higher utilization rates justify further capacity investments, which in turn attract larger enterprise clients willing to pay premium pricing for scalable AI compute. The result is a business model where power becomes a leveraged asset, not a cost center.

Risk Mitigation and Long-Term Viability

Critics may question Nebius's ability to secure 1 GW of power by 2026, given the complexities of utility contracts and grid connectivity. However, the company's current peak utilization rates and sold-out Hopper GPU inventory indicate robust demand, which provides leverage in negotiating favorable power terms. Additionally, its focus on GPU-ready capacity (rather than idle power) ensures that new infrastructure can be activated quickly as Blackwell deployments scale in 2026.

Investment Implications

For investors, Nebius's ARR per MW metric is a leading indicator of enterprise value creation. At current valuations, the stock trades at a discount to its projected revenue multiples, assuming successful execution on its 2026 capacity targets. A $100B+ EV would require Nebius to capture a significant share of the $500B+ AI infrastructure market—a goal within reach given its first-mover advantages in energy efficiency and enterprise adoption.

Conclusion

Nebius Group's ARR per MW is more than a financial metric—it is a testament to the company's ability to engineer value from power. By combining cutting-edge hardware, strategic partnerships, and a vertically integrated platform, Nebius is not just scaling AI infrastructure; it is redefining the economics of the industry. For investors seeking exposure to the AI revolution, Nebius offers a rare combination of high-growth potential and defensible competitive advantages. As the company moves closer to its 1 GW target, the path to a $100B+ EV becomes increasingly clear.