Navitas Soars 12.8% on Intraday Surge: What’s Fueling the Semiconductor Star’s Rally?

Summary
• Navitas (NVTS) surges 12.8% to $8.055, breaking above its 52-week low of $1.52
• Sector leader ON Semiconductor (ON) gains 4.4%, signaling semiconductor sector momentum
• Options frenzy: 2026-01-09 $9 call option sees 1000% price change ratio

Navitas’ explosive intraday rally has ignited speculation in a sector already abuzz with innovation. With the stock trading near its 200-day average of $6.53 and Bollinger Bands tightening, the move aligns with broader semiconductor optimism. IEEE Spectrum’s 2025 top stories—ranging from diamond-cooled chips to nanoimprint lithography—hint at a sector poised for disruptive breakthroughs.

Semiconductor Innovation Sparks Short-Sellers’ Panic
The surge in Navitas stems from a confluence of technical and thematic catalysts. The stock’s 12.8% intraday jump coincides with IEEE Spectrum’s spotlight on cutting-edge semiconductor advancements, including diamond-based thermal management and 2D chip integration. These innovations align with Navitas’ power electronics expertise, suggesting renewed investor confidence in its role in next-gen chip cooling solutions. Meanwhile, the 52-week low of $1.52 and -16.36 P/E ratio indicate undervaluation, attracting speculative buying as short-sellers scramble to cover positions.

Semiconductor Sector Gains Steam as ON Semiconductor Leads Charge
The semiconductor sector’s broader strength is evident in ON Semiconductor’s 4.4% intraday gain, reflecting shared optimism about manufacturing efficiency and supply chain resilience. While Navitas’ rally is more pronounced, both stocks benefit from the SIA’s recent market data showing 25.1% year-on-year growth in global semiconductor sales. The sector’s focus on thermal management and EUV lithography alternatives positions it to capitalize on AI-driven demand and U.S. CHIPS Act funding.

Options Volatility and ETF Gaps: Navigating the Semiconductor Surge
• RSI: 19.25 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.4915 (bearish), Signal Line: -0.4380
• Bollinger Bands: $6.45–$9.93 (price near middle band)
• 200-day average: $6.53 (below current price)

Navitas’ technicals suggest a short-term rebound from oversold territory, with key support at $6.45 and resistance at $9.93. The 12.8% intraday surge has outpaced its 30-day average of $8.15, creating a volatile setup. With no leveraged ETFs available, options trading becomes critical. Two top options stand out:

• NVTS20260109C8.5 (Call, $8.5 strike, 2026-01-09):
- IV: 71.54% (high)
- Leverage Ratio: 42.65% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.3487 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0336 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.4309 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: $30,732 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $0.425 per share
This contract balances leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a continuation of the rally.

• NVTS20260109C9 (Call, $9 strike, 2026-01-09):
- IV: 69.10% (high)
- Leverage Ratio: 67.53% (aggressive)
- Delta: 0.1673 (low sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0197 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.3021 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: $26,235 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $0.35 per share
This option offers high leverage for aggressive bulls, though its low delta requires a sharper price move to unlock value.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider NVTS20260109C8.5 into a breakout above $8.50, while NVTS20260109C9 suits those betting on a sustained rally beyond $9.00.

Backtest Navitas Stock Performance
The backtest of NVTS's performance after an intraday surge of at least 13% from 2022 to the present shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is relatively high at 48.90%, the 10-day win rate is slightly lower at 48.46%, and the 30-day win rate is the lowest at 45.81%. This indicates that NVTS tends to perform well in the short term but faces challenges in maintaining gains over longer periods.

Semiconductor Breakout: Time to Ride the Wave or Ride the Volatility?
Navitas’ 12.8% surge reflects a sector at the cusp of innovation, with thermal management and EUV alternatives driving investor sentiment. The stock’s technicals suggest a short-term bounce, but sustainability hinges on breaking above $9.93 (Bollinger Upper Band) and maintaining volume above 20.5 million. Sector leader ON Semiconductor’s 4.4% gain underscores broader momentum. Investors should monitor the 200-day average of $6.53 as a critical support level. For now, the semiconductor sector’s fusion of R&D breakthroughs and market dynamics makes Navitas a high-conviction play—provided the $8.50 threshold holds.