Navigating the Trump Trade: Wall Street's Winners and Losers in the First 100 Days

President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office in 2025 have been marked by sweeping policy shifts that have reshaped the economic landscape. From aggressive tariff regimes to sweeping cuts in federal science funding, his administration’s agenda has sent shockwaves through markets, creating clear winners and losers. Let’s dissect the sectors thriving—and those struggling—under this new era of “America First” economics.

The Winners: Riding the Wave of Protectionism and Privatization

1. Basic Materials & Manufacturing

Trump’s tariffs on imports, particularly from China and the EU, have created a golden opportunity for domestic producers. By shielding U.S. industries from foreign competition, the administration’s trade policies have fueled demand for basic materials like steel, aluminum, and copper.

Firms like Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and Alcoa (AA) surged as tariffs on Chinese metals drove up prices for imported alternatives. The 25% tariff on aluminum and 145% rate on Chinese goods reduced imports by 23% in 2025, directly benefiting companies with strong domestic production.

2. Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals

The U.S. healthcare sector has emerged as a defensive powerhouse. Tariffs on Chinese-made generic drugs and medical devices have forced consumers and insurers to rely on domestic alternatives, boosting companies like Pfizer (PFE) and Merck (MRK).

Meanwhile, NIH funding cuts have paradoxically accelerated privatization in medical research. Biotech startups and private labs are filling gaps left by reduced federal grants, with venture capital flowing into firms like Moderna (MRNA) and Biogen (BIIB).

3. Energy & Natural Resources

Energy stocks have rallied as tariffs on imported oil and gas tightened supply chains. The exclusion of U.S. energy exports from some reciprocal tariffs has also favored domestic producers like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX).

Geopolitical tensions, including China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. LNG, have further elevated energy’s strategic value. Analysts project the sector to gain another 15% by year-end as global energy demand remains resilient.

4. Dividend Stocks & Value Plays

Value-oriented sectors like utilities and consumer staples have thrived as investors flee growth stocks amid rising inflation. Dividend-paying stalwarts like Procter & Gamble (PG) and AT&T (T) have seen consistent demand.

The Federal Reserve’s reluctance to cut rates has amplified this trend, with bonds and defensive equities offering stability in volatile markets.

The Losers: Sectors Struggling Under Policy Overhaul

1. Automotive & Auto Parts

The auto industry faces a perfect storm. A 25% tariff on imported vehicles and parts—applied inconsistently—has disrupted supply chains, while retaliatory tariffs from China and the EU have slashed U.S. auto exports.

Firms like Ford (F) and GM (GM) have slashed production, with analysts estimating a 10% drop in 2025 profits due to rising costs and reduced demand.

2. Agriculture & Farm Equipment

Farmers and agribusinesses are reeling from retaliatory tariffs. China’s 125% tariffs on U.S. soybeans and corn have collapsed export revenues, while reduced federal disaster aid (via FEMA cuts) leaves many without relief.

Deere (DE) and John Deere’s equipment sales have fallen 18% as farmers delay investments in the face of economic uncertainty.

3. Climate-Dependent Industries

The dismantling of NOAA’s climate research has undermined sectors reliant on federal data. Renewable energy firms, disaster insurers like Munich Re, and shipping companies face higher risks as climate modeling becomes less reliable.

Without accurate climate forecasts, offshore wind and solar projects face delays, while insurers scramble to reassess flood and storm risks.

4. Biotechnology & Academic Research

NIH’s unilateral cuts to indirect research costs—slashing grants by $12 billion annually—have crippled universities and small biotech firms.

While large pharma companies adapt, startups and labs dependent on federal grants are collapsing. The NIH’s $94.6 billion economic footprint in 2024 is now under threat, with 400,000 jobs at risk nationwide.

Conclusion: A New Economic Divide

Trump’s policies have created a stark divide between sectors insulated from trade wars and those caught in the crossfire. The basic materials, energy, and healthcare sectors are leading the charge, buoyed by tariffs, privatization, and geopolitical demand. Meanwhile, automakers, farmers, and climate-sensitive industries face prolonged headwinds.

Crunching the numbers:
- Winners: Basic materials stocks rose 22% in Q1 2025, while energy gained 18%.
- Losers: Auto stocks fell 14%, and agricultural exports dropped $14 billion.
- Economic toll: Tariffs are projected to cost 671,000 jobs and reduce GDP by 1% in 2025, per the U.S. Trade Commission.

Investors should prioritize domestic, defensive plays with low import exposure and high dividend yields. Sectors like healthcare and energy remain top bets, while caution is warranted for global supply chain-dependent industries. As the administration’s policies settle, markets will continue to reward resilience—and punish vulnerability—in equal measure.

Data sources: U.S. Trade Commission, NIH FY2025 Report, Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED).