Navigating the Trade War Landscape: Palantir and Four Other S&P 500 Stocks to Watch in 2025

The escalating trade tensions of 2025 have reshaped the investment landscape, with the S&P 500 losing a staggering $3.5 trillion in market cap due to tariff-driven inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Amid this volatility, a select group of companies have emerged as resilient pillars, leveraging strategic advantages in defense, AI, energy, and travel. Leading the charge is Palantir Technologies, which has not only rebounded from tech-sector declines but also secured a critical edge through its role in U.S. government contracts. Here’s a deep dive into the five stocks to watch—and why they matter in this high-stakes environment.

1. Palantir Technologies (PLTR): The Defense-AI Darling

Palantir’s meteoric rise in 2025—bolstered by a 65% year-to-date (YTD) gain—stems from its dual focus on AI-driven solutions and defense contracts. Its recent win of a NATO contract underscores its position as a key player in global security infrastructure, while its return to JPMorgan’s top retail buys list highlights investor confidence.

Despite broader tech sector declines, Palantir’s 340% surge in 2024 and its resilience in 2025 reflect its insulation from trade disruptions. Its AI software and government ties make it a prime beneficiary of U.S. strategic tech priorities, even as China-U.S. tensions simmer.

2. NVIDIA (NVDA): The AI Hardware Titan

NVIDIA remains the S&P 500’s third-largest holding, driven by its dominance in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips for AI data centers. Q2 2025 revenue surged 38%, with data centers now accounting for over 50% of sales.

Yet its exposure to China’s tech sector poses risks. Despite export restrictions, NVIDIA’s leading role in AI hardware ensures it will remain a core holding for investors betting on the AI revolution.

3. Intel (INTC): Rebuilding for the Data-Centric Future

Intel’s turnaround under CEO Lip-Bu Tan is gaining traction, with its estimated 2025 earnings growth rate soaring to 492.3%. The shift from PCs to AI, autonomous driving, and cloud infrastructure has reignited investor optimism.

While structural challenges persist, Intel’s integrated chip design and alignment with U.S. tech priorities—such as semiconductor manufacturing incentives—position it to weather trade wars better than peers.

4. Constellation Energy (CEG): The Renewable Reliant Utility

CEG’s 45.5% YTD gain reflects investor demand for energy resilience. With earnings growth projected at 68.3% for 2025, its focus on renewables and grid services makes it a defensive play during trade-related volatility.

As energy security becomes a geopolitical priority, CEG’s role in U.S. infrastructure stability makes it a rare “must-have” in a fragmented market.

5. United Airlines (UAL): The Travel Bargain with an Edge

With a P/E ratio of 6.40—well below the industry average—and 22% projected 2025 earnings growth, United offers value amid travel sector uncertainty.

While trade wars could disrupt global routes, its diversified network and cost discipline give it an edge if tensions ease, making it a speculative buy for risk-tolerant investors.

Why These Stocks Matter in a Trade War

The trade war has created a winner-takes-all dynamic. Palantir, NVIDIA, Intel, CEG, and UAL all share traits that insulate them from tariffs and inflation:
- Defense/AI contracts (Palantir, Intel) align with U.S. tech sovereignty goals.
- AI-driven revenue streams (NVIDIA) fuel growth despite export constraints.
- Domestic infrastructure plays (CEG) shield from global commodity shocks.
- Operational agility (United) allows adaptation to shifting demand.

Conclusion: Positioning for Resilience

Investors navigating the trade war should prioritize companies with moats in critical sectors. Palantir’s 65% YTD gain and its NATO contract, NVIDIA’s 38% revenue jump, and Intel’s 492% earnings growth potential all signal strength in strategic areas. Meanwhile, CEG’s 68.3% earnings growth and United’s undervalued stock offer asymmetric upside.

The $3.5 trillion S&P 500 loss underscores the stakes, but these five stocks exemplify how firms can thrive—or at least survive—by aligning with geopolitical priorities. As trade tensions persist, investors would be wise to focus on companies that are not just resilient but indispensable.

The data is clear: in a fractured world, these five stocks are the compass points for 2025’s most turbulent markets.