Navigating the Trade Truce: Opportunities and Risks for Shipping Stocks Amid U.S.-China Uncertainties

The U.S.-China trade deal framework announced in June 2025 has sparked a temporary reprieve for global shipping firms like ZIM and Maersk. While the partial rollback of tariffs has buoyed share prices and hinted at short-term freight rate spikes, the underlying fragility of the agreement leaves long-term risks unresolved. For investors, the path forward requires a tactical approach—capitalizing on near-term optimism while hedging against the volatility of a trade relationship still prone to escalation.

Short-Term Gains: The Tariff Truce and Peak Season Momentum

The May 14 reciprocal tariff reduction from 125% to 10% (paired with the U.S.'s 20% fentanyl tariff, maintaining an effective rate of 30%) has injected optimism into shipping markets. shows a 15% surge as companies anticipate reduced costs and a resumption of cargo flows. Similarly, reflects a 10% jump in June, mirroring investor confidence in the sector's recovery.

The immediate catalyst for gains lies in two factors:
1. Restocking Demand: U.S. importers, fearing future tariff hikes, may accelerate orders before the 90-day truce expires on August 12. This could temporarily boost cargo volumes, especially for high-value goods like semiconductors and electronics.
2. Peak Season Pricing: The traditional Q4 shipping boom—driven by holiday retail demand—could amplify freight rates. suggest rates have already risen 8% since May, with further gains likely if trade flows stabilize. Looking at historical performance, buying ZIM and Maersk at the start of Q4 has historically delivered strong returns. From 2020 to 2024, ZIM averaged a 22% gain over the quarter, while Maersk returned an average of 15%, according to backtest results. This underscores the potential for near-term upside as the peak season approaches.

Long-Term Risks: Unresolved Tensions and Structural Shifts

However, the trade deal's fragility casts a shadow over long-term stability. Three critical risks remain:

1. Uncertainty Over Tariff Sustainability:
   The 90-day truce may not lead to a permanent resolution. If negotiations stall, tariffs could revert to 34% in August, destabilizing shipping demand. Meanwhile, scheduled tariff hikes—like the June 4 increase of Section 232 steel/aluminum duties to 50%—will continue to squeeze industries reliant on bulk cargo.

2. Supply Chain Diversification:
   China's pivot to Europe, ASEAN, and Latin America as primary export markets has reduced reliance on U.S. routes. This shift, combined with U.S. economic contraction (GDP fell 0.5% in early 2025), weakens the long-term demand for trans-Pacific shipping.

3. Sector-Specific Headwinds:
   The U.S.'s four-year review of Section 301 tariffs (e.g., 50% on semiconductors by 2026) and China's retaliatory measures could fragment supply chains, favoring regional hubs over transoceanic routes. Automakers, already struggling with 9% lower factory profits in China, may further curb bulk shipments.

Investment Strategy: Tactical Plays, Not Long-Term Bets

For investors, the optimal approach balances opportunism with caution:

1. Capture Near-Term Gains:
   Buy shares of ZIM and Maersk on dips ahead of the peak season. Both companies have strong balance sheets and exposure to high-margin sectors like e-commerce and tech logistics. Consider using call options to limit downside risk while capitalizing on rate hikes. History shows this strategy can pay off: from 2020 to 2024, buying ZIM at the start of Q4 yielded an average 22% return, while Maersk averaged 15% over the same period (backtest results).

2. Monitor Key Milestones:
   Track whether the U.S. extends the tariff pause beyond August 12 and whether China's rare earth exports meet agreed terms. A failure to resolve issues like intellectual property disputes or semiconductor controls could trigger a selloff.

3. Hedge Against Volatility:
   Diversify into shipping firms with global exposure beyond U.S.-China routes, such as CMA CGM or Hapag-Lloyd, which are less dependent on trans-Pacific demand.

4. Avoid Overcommitment:
   The trade deal's narrow focus on rare earths and fentanyl leaves major disputes unresolved. Long-term investors should prioritize sectors with clearer demand trajectories, such as renewable energy logistics or intra-Asia trade.

Conclusion

The U.S.-China trade deal offers a fleeting opportunity for shipping stocks, but investors must treat it as a tactical trade rather than a buy-and-hold proposition. While short-term gains are possible through peak season and tariff pauses, the unresolved nature of the agreement, coupled with structural shifts in trade patterns, underscores the need for flexibility. As the old maritime adage goes: “The sea is kind to those who respect its dangers.” For shipping stocks, that means sailing with caution in choppy geopolitical waters.