Navigating Thai Equity Opportunities in a Tariff-Tinged Landscape

Thailand’s export sector has defied global trade headwinds, posting a stunning 15.2% year-on-year growth in Q1 2025, driven by front-loaded orders ahead of U.S. tariff threats and sustained demand for automotive, electronics, and agricultural goods. While the specter of a 36% U.S. tariff looms large—suspended until July 2025—the current environment presents a rare window for investors to capitalize on undervalued Thai equities. Beneath the surface of trade tensions lies a strategic opportunity to profit from Thailand’s tech-driven industrial transformation, resilient GDP growth, and proactive fiscal measures.

Why Now?
Thailand’s Q1 GDP growth of 3.1% and its government’s aggressive reallocation of $4.7 billion from stimulus funds to infrastructure and SME support underscore its economic resilience. Despite Moody’s downgrade of Thailand’s credit outlook to negative and a revised GDP forecast of 1.3%-2.3%, the current trade negotiations with the U.S. offer a critical inflection point. A resolution before July could unlock $60 billion in annual U.S.-Thai trade, while even a partial deal would alleviate uncertainty and boost investor confidence.

The Trade Risk-Opportunity Paradox

While the U.S. tariff threat remains unresolved, Thailand’s strategic moves to diversify its export markets—37 million tourists projected in 2025 (down from 38 million but still robust) and deepening ties with ASEAN—mitigate overreliance on U.S. demand. Meanwhile, the government’s “30@30” electric vehicle (EV) strategy and $316 million in incentives for EV battery and component manufacturers position Thailand as Southeast Asia’s EV powerhouse.

Sectors to Watch:
1. Automotive & Smart Mobility
- Opportunity: Thailand’s automotive industry, accounting for 9% of GDP, is pivoting to EVs and autonomous vehicles. Companies like PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC) and Advanced Info Service (ADVANC) are investing in EV battery tech and connectivity systems.
- Catalyst: The U.S. is seeking Thai partners in smart vehicle development, as highlighted in the May 8 policy proposal to the USTR.

1. AI & Semiconductor Infrastructure
2. Opportunity: Thailand’s $98 billion electronics industry and its 30 data centers (second globally in hard drive manufacturing) are key to ASEAN’s digital supply chain. Firms like Orbits Group (ORBIT) and Global Power Synergy (GPSC) are expanding data infrastructure to support AI and cloud services.

3. Catalyst: Thailand’s plan to train 80,000 semiconductor specialists by 2028 ensures talent pipelines for tech giants.

4. Infrastructure & Logistics

5. Opportunity: The reallocated $4.7 billion will fund ports, railroads, and smart grids, reducing logistics costs and boosting export efficiency. Italian-Thai Development (ITD) and Siam Cement Group (SCC) are prime beneficiaries of these projects.
6. Catalyst: ASEAN’s push to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains favors Thailand’s central logistics hub position.

Act Now—Before the Tariff Cloud Lifts

The clock is ticking until July 2025. Investors who wait for a resolution risk missing the rally once uncertainty fades. Key catalysts include:
- A U.S.-Thailand trade deal before July, which would erase the 36% tariff risk and unlock pent-up investment.
- Strong Q2 export data, with automotive and electronics shipments expected to hit $18 billion, up 12% YoY.
- Inflows from U.S. firms seeking Thailand’s EV and AI ecosystems, as highlighted in the government’s May 8 proposal.

Final Call:
Thailand’s equities offer a risk/reward asymmetry unmatched in emerging markets. With a SET Index trading at a 12% discount to its 5-year average P/E ratio, now is the time to deploy capital into automotive leaders like A.P. Moller – Maersk (THA), tech enablers like Amata Corporation (AMATA), and infrastructure plays like Bangchak Petroleum (BCP). The U.S. tariff deadline is a self-imposed catalyst—investors who act decisively will capture gains as Thailand’s economy pivots from resilience to acceleration.

The trade war is a storm, but Thailand’s equity landscape is a ship with a clear course. Board now—before the wind shifts.