Navigating Singapore's Resilient Private Residential Market: Strategic Entry Points in a Post-Election, Pre-Launch Era

Singapore's private residential market has entered a pivotal phase in 2025, marked by a delicate balance between post-election recalibration and the anticipation of a robust second-half supply pipeline. While Q2 2025 saw a 1.0% quarter-on-quarter price increase, transaction volumes plummeted by 29.4% due to election-related pauses and seasonal lulls. Yet, beneath these surface-level trends lies a market primed for selective entry, driven by shifting buyer behavior, a surge in resale dominance, and the Core Central Region (CCR)'s reemergence as a high-conviction investment zone.

Selective Buyer Behavior: The New Normal

The post-election period has sharpened buyer selectivity, particularly in the CCR. With the Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) for non-residents at 60%, foreign demand has waned, leaving local buyers—especially upgraders and families—to dominate the market. This shift is evident in the CCR's 2.3% price surge in Q2, driven by projects like 21 Anderson and the return of high-net-worth Singaporeans seeking prime locations. Developers are now tailoring offerings to this demographic, emphasizing smart layouts, integrated amenities, and proximity to MRT stations. For instance, the 301-unit Upperhouse @ Orchard Boulevard and The Robertson Opus (348 units) have achieved absorption rates of 53% and 41%, respectively, with average prices exceeding $3,300 per square foot (psf). These projects cater to a buyer base prioritizing long-term residency over speculative gains, a trend reinforced by URA's Gross Floor Area (GFA) harmonisation rules, which have streamlined design efficiency.

Resale Dominance: A Structural Shift

Resale transactions now account for 71.1% of all private home sales, a structural shift driven by the scarcity of new launches. In Q2, 3,647 resale deals were recorded, with 11 Good Class Bungalows (GCBs) transacted for over $300 million. This dominance is further amplified by the limited supply of Minimum Occupation Period (MOP)-compliant flats, with only 16,974 units expected to become available in 2025. The result? A competitive resale market where location premium and unit size dictate value. For example, properties within 500 meters of MRT stations in the CCR have seen price premiums of 15–20%, while larger units (3–4 bedrooms) command 30% higher demand than smaller configurations.

CCR Price Momentum: A Strategic Sweet Spot

The CCR's price momentum in Q3 2025 is set to accelerate, fueled by a pipeline of 4,154 new units across the region. Key launches like River Green by Wing Tai (88% absorption in Q3) and Promenade Peak by Allgreen (54% absorption) have demonstrated that competitive pricing and strategic location can drive demand even in a cautious market. The narrowing price gap between the CCR and the Rest of Central Region (RCR) has also made prime properties more accessible. In Q1 2025, the median psf in the CCR was $2,554, just 4% below the RCR's $2,716—a reversal not seen since 2013. This convergence, coupled with URA's planned release of 4,725 units in H2 2025, positions the CCR as a high-conviction segment for investors seeking both capital appreciation and rental yields.

High-Conviction Opportunities: Where to Focus

1. New Launches with Proven Absorption: Projects like River Green and Upperhouse @ Orchard Boulevard offer a blend of competitive pricing, strategic location, and strong early sales. These developments are ideal for investors seeking entry into the CCR at a discount to resale prices.
2. Resale Units in MRT-Adjacent CCR Subzones: Properties within 500 meters of MRT stations in districts like Great World and River Valley are seeing consistent price outperformance. For example, a 3-bedroom unit in Great World MRT's catchment area sold for $3,450 psf in Q2, a 12% premium over the CCR average.
3. Landed Assets in GCB Corridors: The 11 GCB transactions in Q2 highlight the resilience of landed property demand. Investors with liquidity can target GCBs in areas like Holland Village and River Valley, where supply is constrained and demand from ultra-high-net-worth individuals remains strong.

Risks and Mitigations

While the CCR's momentum is compelling, external risks persist. Global geopolitical tensions and potential U.S. tariff hikes could dampen investor sentiment, while interest rate fluctuations may impact financing costs. However, the anticipated easing of SORA rates in H2 2025 and the government's focus on housing affordability (e.g., HDB resale price caps) provide a buffer. Investors should prioritize projects with strong developer track records (e.g., Wing Tai, UOL) and flexible financing options to mitigate these risks.

Conclusion: A Market of Precision, Not Panic

Singapore's private residential market in 2025 is not a frenzy but a calculated recalibration. For investors, the key lies in precision: targeting CCR new launches with absorption momentum, leveraging resale dominance in high-demand subzones, and capitalizing on the narrowing price gaps between prime and secondary central regions. As the market navigates post-election uncertainty and pre-launch optimism, those who act with discipline and foresight will find themselves well-positioned for the remainder of the year.