Navigating Post-Ong Market Shifts: Implications for Australian Fixed Income and Macro Strategy

The Australian economic landscape in 2025 is being shaped by a confluence of factors: the lingering effects of global trade tensions, the Federal Reserve’s evolving rate policy, and the looming question of succession risk at RBC Capital Markets. At the heart of this dynamic is Su-Lin Ong, the long-serving chief economist for Australia at RBC, whose insights have long anchored the bank’s macroeconomic and fixed-income strategies. However, as whispers of her potential departure circulate—despite her continued public appearances in 2025—the market is recalibrating to a future where institutional memory and forecasting methodologies may face disruption.

The Ong Legacy and Methodological Foundations

Su-Lin Ong’s tenure at RBC has been defined by a blend of macroeconomic rigor and pragmatic adaptability. Her 2025 outlook, for instance, emphasizes a “cautiously optimistic” view of Australia’s economy, projecting 50 basis points of easing from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) beginning in May 2025, contingent on a resilient consumer sector and labor market [1]. This approach has relied heavily on integrating global variables—such as U.S. trade policy shifts and China’s economic trajectory—into domestic forecasts, a methodology that has gained prominence amid Australia’s trade-dependent structure [2].

Ong’s team has also been at the forefront of adopting AI-driven tools to refine predictions, leveraging machine learning to parse non-linear relationships in data sets ranging from housing construction trends to public-sector spending [3]. These innovations have bolstered RBC’s credibility in a market where traditional models have struggled to account for the volatility introduced by geopolitical shocks and rapid technological change.

Succession Risk and the Shadow of Uncertainty

The absence of a publicly announced successor for Ong introduces a layer of risk that extends beyond personnel changes. Succession in economic forecasting is not merely about replacing an individual but preserving institutional knowledge and continuity in analytical frameworks. As one industry report notes, leadership transitions in top-tier economic teams can lead to “forecast dispersion and increased error margins,” particularly in markets as interconnected as Australia’s [4].

This risk is amplified by the current macroeconomic environment. Australia’s fixed-income markets have underperformed relative to peers in 2024, a trend RBC attributes to the country’s sluggish growth and geopolitical headwinds [1]. A leadership vacuum at RBC could exacerbate uncertainties around policy assumptions, potentially affecting investor confidence in the bank’s bond yield forecasts. For instance, RBC’s base case of 50 basis points of RBA easing hinges on assumptions about consumer resilience and trade stability—areas where Ong’s nuanced analysis has historically provided clarity [2].

Fixed-Income Strategies in a Post-Ong Era

The implications for fixed-income strategies are twofold. First, the underperformance of Australian bonds in 2024 has already prompted a shift toward shorter-duration instruments and active yield curve management, as global investors hedge against inflation persistence and shifting correlations [5]. A leadership transition at RBC could accelerate this trend if new assumptions about monetary policy or growth trajectories emerge. Second, the potential for a Trump-era trade policy shift—already priced into markets—introduces a wildcard element. Ong has highlighted that U.S.-China tensions could indirectly pressure Australia’s export sectors, yet her team’s ability to model these scenarios relies on consistent methodological frameworks [1]. A successor with a different analytical lens might recalibrate risk assessments, altering the bank’s guidance for bond investors.

Broader Market Implications

The ripple effects of succession risk extend beyond RBC. In a market where institutional forecasts heavily influence investor behavior, a shift in RBC’s approach could trigger broader reevaluations of Australia’s macroeconomic trajectory. For example, the Australian Industry Outlook 2025 already notes weak demand and cost pressures as growth inhibitors, with leaders expressing cautious optimism about modest improvements [6]. If RBC’s forecasts diverge significantly post-transition—say, by downgrading growth assumptions or recalibrating inflation expectations—this could amplify market volatility, particularly in sectors like housing and public infrastructure that rely on stable interest rate environments.

Conclusion: Mitigating Risk Through Adaptability

For investors, the key takeaway is clear: succession risk in top-tier economic forecasting teams must be treated as a material factor in portfolio strategy. While Su-Lin Ong’s continued presence in 2025 provides temporary stability, the eventual transition will test the resilience of RBC’s methodologies and the adaptability of market participants. The integration of AI and real-time data analytics offers a partial buffer, but human judgment—particularly in interpreting geopolitical and policy shifts—remains irreplaceable.

As the Australian economy navigates a delicate balance between domestic resilience and global fragility, the ability of institutions like RBC to maintain analytical continuity will be critical. For now, the market watches closely, aware that even the most sophisticated models are only as strong as the leadership behind them.

Source:
[1] Macro, monetary policy & rates - 2025 Outlook, [https://www.rbccm.com/en/story/2024/11/2025-outlook-macro-monetary-policy-rates]
[2] The challenges of the transition to market economies for ..., [https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14631377.2021.1886792]
[3] AI-driven transformation: From economic forecasting to strategic management, [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/380208871_AI-driven_transformation_From_economic_forecasting_to_strategic_management]
[4] International economic policy uncertainty and analysts ..., [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X24001549]
[5] 2025 Fall Investment Directions: Rethinking diversification, [https://www.blackrock.com/us/financial-professionals/insights/investment-directions-fall-2025]
[6] Australian Industry Outlook for 2025, [https://www.aigroup.com.au/resourcecentre/research-economics/australian-industry-outlook-2025/]