Navigating High-Impact Token Unlocks: Strategic Entry and Exit Points for APT and Solana in Late September 2025

Introduction

Late September 2025 marks a critical juncture for investors in Aptos (APT) and Solana (SOL), as both blockchains face significant token unlocks that could reshape market dynamics. These events, while part of their long-term tokenomics strategies, carry inherent risks of price volatility and liquidity strain. By analyzing historical patterns, liquidity absorption rates, and technical developments, this article outlines strategic entry and exit points for navigating these unlocks.

APT’s Dual Unlocks: Supply Pressure and Ecosystem Resilience

Aptos will experience two major unlocks in late September 2025: 11.31 million APT tokens (~0.98% of circulating supply) on September 11, valued at ~$45.24 million, and a second unlock of $47–50 million in tokens (~1.6% of supply) on September 12 [2]. Historical data suggests that large unlocks (>1% of supply) often trigger short-term price dips. For instance, APT’s April 2024 unlock of 2.59% supply led to a 25.74% price decline [3].

However, Aptos’ ecosystem strength—such as partnerships with Magna and SecondSwap—may mitigate sell pressure. Institutional demand for APT, driven by its integration with USDT/USDC deposits, could enhance liquidity absorption. Traders should monitor on-chain metrics like exchange inflows and decentralized exchange (DEX) liquidity depth to gauge market resilience [2].

Strategic Entry/Exit Points for APT:
- Pre-unlock (September 8–10): Position for short-term volatility by hedging with options or entering limit orders near key support levels.
- Post-unlock (September 13–15): Re-enter if APT stabilizes above its 20-day moving average, signaling effective absorption.

Solana’s $45M Unlock: Efficiency Upgrades and Market Saturation

Solana’s unlock on September 9, 2025, will release 150 million S tokens (~5.02% of supply), valued at ~$45.59 million [2]. This represents one of the largest unlocks of the month and could introduce downward pressure, especially if institutional selling outpaces demand. Historical precedents, such as Solana’s March 2025 unlock of 2.4% supply, show mixed outcomes: while DeFi activity and deflationary mechanisms initially absorbed the supply, broader market turbulence later exacerbated volatility [4].

A critical factor for Solana is its p-token program, which reduces compute unit (CU) usage for token operations by ~95%, potentially boosting network throughput and attracting new use cases [1]. This efficiency gain could offset some supply-side pressures by enhancing token utility.

Strategic Entry/Exit Points for Solana:
- Pre-unlock (September 6–8): Build positions during dips, prioritizing Solana-based tokens with strong TVL growth (e.g., JitoSOL).
- Post-unlock (September 10–12): Exit if Solana’s price falls below $190 (a key support level) or re-enter if the p-token program drives renewed demand.

Historical Context: Liquidity Absorption and Volatility Patterns

Research on 16,000 token unlock events reveals that 90% create negative price pressure, with larger unlocks (>5% supply) causing the most pronounced effects [2]. For example, APT’s April 2024 unlock saw a 51.7% price surge pre-event but a steady decline afterward [3]. Solana’s March 2025 unlock, while initially absorbed by DeFi, later faced downward pressure amid macroeconomic uncertainties [4].

Liquidity absorption rates vary:
- APT: In May 2025, assets held firm despite unlocks, partly due to Bitcoin’s bullish momentum [3].
- Solana: Institutional demand (e.g., Pantera’s $1.25B investment) and liquid staking options have historically improved absorption [5].

Strategic Framework for Investors

1. Pre-Unlock Preparation:
2. Use options strategies (e.g., straddles) to hedge against volatility.
3. Analyze funding rates on perpetual exchanges to anticipate short-term directional bias.
4. Post-Unlock Execution:
5. For APT, focus on DEX liquidity depth and Magna/SecondSwap activity.
6. For Solana, monitor p-token adoption and institutional inflows.
7. Long-Term Positioning:
8. Re-enter if unlocks are absorbed without significant price drops, signaling strong demand.

Conclusion

Late September 2025 presents both risks and opportunities for APT and Solana investors. While large unlocks threaten short-term volatility, ecosystem growth and technical upgrades (e.g., p-tokens) offer pathways to stability. By leveraging historical patterns and real-time on-chain metrics, investors can strategically navigate these events and capitalize on post-unlock recoveries.

Source:
[1] P-Token: Solana's Next Big Efficiency Unlock [https://www.helius.dev/blog/solana-p-token]
[2] Token Unlocks September 2025: Which Crypto Releases Should You Watch Closely [https://web3.bitget.com/en/academy/token-unlocks-september-2025-which-crypto-releases-should-you-watch-closely]
[3] Token Economic Report: The total unlock amount for 2024 [https://www.chaincatcher.com/en/article/2166161]
[4] Solana Token Unlock on March 1, 2025 [https://www.bittime.com/en/blog/solana-token-unlock-maret-2025]
[5] Institutional Bet Stacks on Solana's High-Stakes Rise [https://www.bitget.site/news/detail/12560604938812]